Preview
Umery UnderdogThere's something about the little guy who just refuses to stay down, and U.N.A.M. - Pumas are showing exactly that kind of spirit heading into this Liga MX clash at Atlante FC's ground on 17 October.
The market has Atlante FC as the home favourite at 2.33, but when I look at the numbers, the underdog story here is compelling. Pumas have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 per game, while Atlante FC have managed just 6 from their last five. More telling: Pumas have failed to score in only one of those five games, whereas Atlante FC went blank in two. That scoring output is the kind of thing that keeps a small dog barking at the big one.
Pumas' away record over 20 games tells a solid story: 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, with 1.4 points per game and 1.45 goals scored per outing. They've kept clean sheets in 5 of those 20 away games and failed to score in just 6. That's a team that travels well and finds a way to get a result on the road.
The counter-argument is real, and I won't pretend it isn't. Pumas lost 0–3 at Guadalajara Chivas four weeks ago and dropped 2–3 at home to Atletico San Luis two weeks ago. They've conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, and four red cards in their last ten games suggest a team that can get rattled. Atlante FC, for all their recent struggles, have a home record of 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses over 20 games, with just 1.0 goals conceded per game at home. That's a strong home record in the aggregate, even if the last five weeks have been rough.
But here's the thing: Atlante FC's last ten games across all venues show just 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses. They lost 0–3 at home to CF Pachuca five weeks ago and 0–2 at Club Queretaro just seven days before this kickoff. Their xG against in the two games where data is available sits at 1.53 per game, and they've failed to score in two of their last five. The home record looks strong overall, but the last month has been a different story.
There's no head-to-head history between these two sides, so we're flying on current form and venue records. And the current form says Pumas are the team with the sharper edge in front of goal. I rate Pumas' chance of winning at roughly 37%, which sits just above the market's 33.33% view. That small edge is enough for a little puppy to chase.
Key Points:
- Pumas have scored 9 goals in their last 5 games (1.8/game) vs Atlante FC's 6 (1.2/game)
- Pumas have only failed to score in 1 of their last 5 matches; Atlante FC went blank in 2
- Pumas' away record: 7W 7D 6L in 20 games, 1.4 ppg
- Atlante FC's last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, with 0–3 and 0–2 defeats in the last five weeks
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
My pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas away win at 3.0. The little puppies are barking, and I'm backing them to find the gap. 🐾