Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you, bro. This one's got me reaching for the beer before kickoff. Guadalajara Chivas are flying, and Atlas at home? That's a tough one to back.

Chivas have won three of their last five, scoring 10 and conceding just 4. They beat Club America 2-0 at home six days ago in a friendly, and before that they thrashed Pumas 3-0 at home and Atletico San Luis 3-0 on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses at 1.45 points per game. In their last 10 across all grounds, they're averaging 2 points per game and conceding only 0.9 per game, with 4 clean sheets. That's a side that's locked in, and man, I respect that.

Now Atlas. One win, two draws, two losses in five. They conceded 12 goals in that stretch and haven't kept a clean sheet. Their home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses at 1.15 points per game. In the last 10, they've conceded 1.9 per game and only managed 1 clean sheet. The 5-2 hammering at Toluca four weeks ago and the 1-3 loss to Queretaro at home six weeks ago tell you this side is leaking goals like a bucket with a hole in it.

The head-to-head at this ground backs the Chivas case. In the last 12 months, Chivas won 1-2 here in March and the January meeting was a 0-0 draw. Atlas haven't beaten Chivas at this venue in the recent meetings. And in the reverse fixture at Chivas's ground last October, it was 4-1.

Now the counter-argument, because I'm not a one-note tipster. Atlas did grab a 3-2 win away at Tijuana two weeks ago, and they've scored in all five of their last games. The January meeting here was a 0-0, so this ground can produce tight affairs. And Chivas did lose 0-2 to Queretaro at home two weeks ago, so they're not untouchable. But that was a home game, and the overall picture still points Chivas' way.

Key Points:

• Chivas: 3W 1D 1L in last 5, 10 scored, 4 conceded; Atlas: 1W 2D 2L, 8 scored, 12 conceded

• Chivas away record: 7W 8D 5L in 20; Atlas home record: 5W 8D 7L in 20

• H2H at this venue (recent): Chivas won 1-2 in March, 0-0 draw in January

• Chivas latest 10: 2.0 ppg, 0.9 conceded/game; Atlas latest 10: 1.4 ppg, 1.9 conceded/game

• Chivas won 2 of 3 recent H2H meetings

My verdict: Guadalajara Chivas away win at 2.22.