Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash between Atletico San Luis and the struggling Necaxa side. When you're bottom of the table and can't buy a win on the road, you know you're in for a tough Tuesday night.

San Luis have been a bit of a mixed bag lately, but they've found some form at the right time. Back-to-back wins against Pumas (1-0 away) and Atlas (2-0 at home) show they're keeping it tight at the back. That's two clean sheets on the bounce, which ain't bad when you consider they'd been leaking goals earlier in the season. They've netted 15 in their last 10, so there's firepower there when they need it.

Now for Necaxa... blimey, where do we start? One win in their last 10 games tells its own story. They've been shipping goals for fun - 21 conceded in that spell, including a 5-3 hammering by Tigres and a 3-0 loss to Monterrey. On their travels, it's even worse: five away games, five defeats, and they're letting in 3.4 goals per game on the road. That's not just bad, that's relegation-form bad.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading though. These two usually serve up goals - eight of their nine meetings have gone over 2.5, and both teams have scored in seven of them. But that was then, and this is now. San Luis have tightened up defensively, while Necaxa can't stop the rot.

Looking at the numbers, San Luis are averaging 1.5 goals per game recently, while Necaxa are barely managing 0.9. More importantly, San Luis are keeping clean sheets 30% of the time, while Necaxa have managed just one in their last 10. The goal expectancy has San Luis at 2.20 goals to Necaxa's 1.23, which tells you everything you need to know about where this one's heading.

The bookies have San Luis at 2.50 for the win, which looks decent value when you consider the form gap and Necaxa's away woes. Sometimes the simple bet is the best bet, and this feels like one of those occasions.