Preview
PajimonNo head-to-head between Audace Cerignola and Savoia, so we're going on what the numbers say about this specific fixture. And the numbers don't lie, bra.
Over 20 home games (October 2025 to October 2026), Audace Cerignola have banked 10 wins, 7 draws and just 3 losses, averaging 1.85 points per game. They score 1.65 per game, concede 1.1, and have kept 8 clean sheets in that stretch. Savoia, on the road, have managed 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses over 20 away games (November 2025 to October 2026), averaging 1.65 points per game. They score 1.6 per game but concede 1.15. The real story is in the draw-to-loss split: Cerignola drop points 10 times in 20 home games (7 draws, 3 losses) while Savoia drop points 10 times in 20 away games but split it 3 draws and 7 losses. That's a team far more likely to find a way to a draw at home than to lose, and a team on the road that's more likely to lose than draw.
Recent form is a bit mixed for both. Cerignola come in with a 3–2 away win at Crotone eight days ago, but before that they've drawn 0–0 at home twice and lost two away. Last five: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses. Savoia won 2–1 at home against Inter U23 on the same day, but their last five is 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, including a 4–2 defeat at Cavese three weeks ago. Both are on a one-game winning run, so nobody's on a tear. Think of it like a slow-cooker on the braai — it's got to simmer before it gets going.
The counter-argument: Cerignola's recent home form has been flat. Two 0–0 draws at home in their last five, and they've failed to score in 3 of those 5. Savoia have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and only failed to score in 2. Both teams' over/under 2.5 records in the last 5 are 2 over, 3 under, so this could well be a tight, low-scoring affair. And with no head-to-head to reference, there's no pattern to lean on.
But the home/away records are the most relevant evidence for this fixture, and they point firmly to Cerignola. The market prices the home win at 1.82, implying about 55%. My read, based on the home record's consistency and the away record's vulnerability, puts Cerignola's chance of winning at roughly 57%. That's a slight edge over the market's view.
Key Points:
- Cerignola's 20-game home record: 10W 7D 3L, 1.85 PPG, only 3 defeats
- Savoia's 20-game away record: 10W 3D 7L, 1.65 PPG, 7 defeats
- No head-to-head meetings on record
- Both teams on a 1-game winning run; recent form is mixed
- Cerignola's home defence: 1.1 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets in 20
Verdict: I'm going with the Audace Cerignola home win.