Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Audace Cerignola hosting Savoia on 18 October in Serie C Girone C, and if you want to know who's got the edge, the numbers don't really leave much room for debate.
Cerignola at home are the story here. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses, racking up 1.85 points per game. They're averaging 1.65 goals a game at home and keeping it to 1.1 conceded, with 8 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. That's a solid home record, and it's the kind of numbers that make you lean towards the hosts without needing to overthink it.
Savoia on the road, though, tell a different tale. Their last 20 away games have produced 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses — 1.65 points per game. They score 1.6 a game away but concede 1.15, and they've only managed 7 clean sheets. That 7-loss record on the road is the thing that catches your eye when you're lining the two sides up against each other.
Now, the last five games for both teams have been a bit of a mixed bag. Cerignola have one win, two draws and two losses, including two 0-0 draws at home against Team Altamura and Casertana. Savoia have one win, three draws and one loss, with two 0-0 draws of their own. So the immediate form is a bit flat, and that 0-0 pattern might suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. But when you zoom out to the last 10 games, Cerignola are sitting on 1.5 points per game with 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, while Savoia are at 1.3 points per game with 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. That's a small but meaningful gap in Cerignola's favour.
There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we can't lean on history. It's all about what the current numbers are telling us, and the home-versus-away split is the clearest signal we've got.
Key Points:
- Cerignola's home record: 10W 7D 3L in 20 games, 1.85 points per game
- Savoia's away record: 10W 3D 7L in 20 games, 1.65 points per game
- Both teams have only 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Cerignola average 1.65 goals scored and 1.1 conceded at home; Savoia average 1.6 scored and 1.15 conceded away
- No head-to-head meetings on record
The market has Cerignola at 1.82 for the home win, which prices them at 54.95%. My read of the numbers puts them a touch higher than that, and the home record stacked against Savoia's away struggles gives me enough confidence to back the hosts. My pick: Audace Cerignola home win.