Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Austria Lustenau hosting Lask Linz on 17 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.
Lask Linz come in with the better recent form, no doubt about it. Five wins from their last ten games, 1.6 points per game, and they're scoring 2.2 a game while keeping it to 1.5 conceded. Austria Lustenau, on the other hand, have lost their last two — three goals scored, five conceded — and sit on just 3 wins from 10 with 1.1 points per game. That's a gap that's hard to ignore when you're sitting down with a pint and a football paper.
Now, I'll give Austria Lustenau credit where it's due. Their home record over 20 games is actually respectable — 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, 1.85 points per game. So you can't just write them off as a team that can't win at home. But look at the scoring: they're putting up 1.25 a game at home, while Lask Linz are scoring 2.55 a game on the road. That's a big difference in output. And Lask Linz's away record — 9 wins from 20 — is solid, with 1.6 points per game and 1.35 conceded per game.
The head-to-head is all historical — nothing within the last 12 months — so I won't lean on it too heavily. But when they do meet, Lask Linz have won 13 of 18, and at Austria Lustenau's ground specifically, the last two meetings went 1–3 and 1–1. Not exactly a place where the visitors have been treated to a warm welcome.
The xG numbers back it up too. Lask Linz are creating 1.57 expected goals per game and conceding 1.44, while Austria Lustenau are creating 1.22 and conceding 2.17. That's a team that's leaking goals and struggling to find the back of the net. Lask Linz, by contrast, are creating more and keeping it tighter.
The counter-argument? Well, Austria Lustenau did beat SCR Altach 2–0 four weeks ago at home, and they've only lost 5 of their last 20 home games. They're not a team that's completely lost the plot. And Lask Linz did lose 0–2 to Rapid Vienna just six days ago, so they're not flying either. But on balance, the weight of evidence points one way.
The market has Lask Linz at 1.42, which implies about a 70% chance. My own read, factoring in the form gap, the xG numbers, and the away scoring output, puts them a touch higher — I'd say around 74%. That's a small but real edge, and it's the kind of value I like to find.
Key Points:
- Lask Linz: 5W 1D 4L in last 10, 2.2 scored per game, 1.5 conceded per game
- Austria Lustenau: lost last 2, 3W 2D 5L in last 10, 1.1 points per game
- Lask Linz away: 9W in 20, 2.55 scored per game, 1.35 conceded per game
- Austria Lustenau home: 1.25 scored per game, 2.17 xG conceded per game
- Historical H2H: Lask Linz won 13 of 18 meetings, including 1–3 at Austria Lustenau's ground in 2023
So there we are. Lask Linz are the stronger side, they've got the better recent form, the better xG numbers, and the better away scoring record. Austria Lustenau's home record is decent, but the last two games have been a bit of a wake-up call. I'm going with the Lask Linz away win.