Preview
Right, so we've got Austria Vienna (Am) hosting WSPG Wels in the 2. Liga on 16 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Austria Vienna (Am) have been cooking at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 14, drawn 2 and lost 4, scoring 2.3 a game and conceding just 1.25. That's a 70% win rate at home, and they've kept 6 clean sheets in that stretch. Their last two games have been wins — a 4–1 over Rapid Wien II at home on 20 September and a 1–0 away at SV Kapfenberg on 9 October — and they've scored 5 and conceded just 1 in that run. Over 10 games, they're 7 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That's a side that's clicking.
Now, WSPG Wels on the other hand... well, they've got a 1–0 win over Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz at home six days ago, which is nice, but look at the wider picture. Over 10 games they're 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Their away record over 20 games is 9 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses — that's a 45% win rate, and they've only kept 3 clean sheets in that stretch. The dates on those away games span 11 months, so some of that's older, but the recent form tells the real story, and it's not pretty.
The head-to-head is small — just two meetings — but Austria Vienna (Am) won both. The recent one, back in March at Austria Vienna (Am)'s ground, was a 1–0. The older one at WSPG Wels's ground was 0–1. Both were under 2.5 goals, both were clean sheets for Austria Vienna (Am). Small sample, so don't read too much into it, but it's a nice little nod.
The counter-argument? WSPG Wels did score in all 5 of their last 5 games, and their away record does show 9 wins in 20. They're not a team that just folds. And the 3–3 draw with Austria Salzburg at home on 2 October showed they can produce goals. But that was a friendly, and the 1–3 loss to First Vienna at home on 18 September is a more honest read of where they're at. They've conceded 10 in their last 5, and that's a lot of holes to plug when you're travelling to a side that's scoring 2.3 a game at home.
Key Points:
- Austria Vienna (Am) are 14W 2D 4L over 20 home games, scoring 2.3 per game and conceding 1.25
- WSPG Wels are 3W 2D 5L over 10, averaging 2.0 goals conceded per game
- Austria Vienna (Am) won their last 2, scoring 5 and conceding 1
- Head-to-head: Austria Vienna (Am) won both meetings, both under 2.5 goals
- WSPG Wels away record: 9W 2D 9L over 20 games
My verdict: I'm going with the home win for Austria Vienna (Am). The numbers back it up, the form backs it up, and the price at 2.48 looks like decent value when you consider how dominant they've been at home. No jargon, just goals, graft, and good value.
