Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction

Right, so we've got Austria Vienna hosting Sturm Graz on 10 October in the Bundesliga, and let me tell you, this one's got me reaching for the beer before the first whistle.

Sturm Graz are the ones to back here, and the numbers back it up. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses for 1.7 points per game, while Austria Vienna managed 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses at 1.4 per game. Sturm Graz also concede less — 1.1 per game compared to Austria Vienna's 1.3. And when you look at the away record specifically, Sturm Graz sit at 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses over 20 away games with 1.5 points per game, while Austria Vienna at home sit at 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses for 1.45 per game. Sturm Graz edge it on points and concede less — 1.4 per game away versus 1.5 per game at home for Vienna.

The head-to-head at this ground tells the story too. In the last 12 months, the two meetings at Austria Vienna's ground went 2–5 to Sturm Graz in March 2026 and 3–1 to Austria Vienna in December 2025. The most recent one was a comfortable 2–5 away win for Graz. And in the reverse fixture at Sturm's ground just five months ago, they drew 1–1. So the most recent meeting at this venue went Graz's way.

Now, the counter-argument. Austria Vienna are not sitting pretty — they've won 3 of their last 5, including a 6–1 away thrashing of Admira Wacker on 2 October and a 2–1 home win over Austria Lustenau on 13 September. Their scoring is up there at 3.2 goals per game in that stretch. And they did win at home against Graz back in December. So they're not a team to write off entirely.

But here's the thing — Sturm Graz's xG numbers over 5 recent games show 1.23 per game for, which is well above Austria Vienna's 0.92 per game over just 2 games with xG data. Graz are creating more in those games. Their defence is also holding up better, conceding 1.21 per game in those xG games versus Vienna's 1.24.

Key Points:

• Sturm Graz have won 5 of their last 10 games (1.7 PPG) compared to Austria Vienna's 4 (1.4 PPG)

• The most recent H2H at Austria Vienna's ground was a 2–5 Sturm Graz win in March 2026

• Sturm Graz's away record: 8W 6D 6L over 20 games, conceding 1.4 per game

• Austria Vienna's home record: 8W 5D 7L over 20 games, conceding 1.5 per game

• Both teams scored 1.65 per game in their respective home and away records

Verdict: I'm going with the Sturm Graz away win at 2.22. The evidence points to Graz being the stronger side, and the market's 45% implied is a touch shy of what the numbers suggest. My gut says they're closer to a 48% chance of taking all three points. Eish, that's a good bet for an evening with the bra going.