Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction

Right, so we've got Avispa Fukuoka hosting Fagiano Okayama on 10 October in the J1 League, and if I'm being straight with you, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.

Fagiano Okayama are flying. Four wins from their last five, scoring two a game, and they haven't failed to score in a single one. Every one of those last five went over 2.5 goals. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, and their latest 10 across all grounds is 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses. They're putting up 1.6 a game and conceding 1.1. That's a team in the zone, mate.

Avispa Fukuoka, on the other hand, are going through the wringer. Zero wins from their last five – two draws and three losses. They've scored 0.8 a game and conceded 1.4. Two of those five saw them fail to score at all. Their home record over 20 games is 4 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses, and their latest 10 is 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses. Oh, and they picked up two red cards in that Sanfrecce Hiroshima game three weeks ago, which didn't exactly help the mood.

The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings – just two in the last 12 months. Fagiano won 2-0 at their own ground in April, and the February meeting at Avispa's ground ended 1-1. So at this venue, the last time they met was a draw, but Fagiano took the other one comfortably.

Now, the counter-argument: Avispa at home do draw a lot – 9 of their last 20 home games ended level – and the last meeting here was a 1-1. Fagiano haven't kept a clean sheet in their last five either, so this could be a goal-fest where Avispa nick a point. The market's pricing the draw at 32.26%, which isn't far off what I'd give it.

But the weight of evidence points Fagiano's way. They're scoring 2 a game to Avispa's 0.8, they've won four of five, and their away numbers back that up. The market has them at 40% for the win, but I'd put their chances closer to 45% given the form gap on show.

Key Points:

• Fagiano Okayama: 4W 1L in last 5, 2 goals per game, over 2.5 in all five

• Avispa Fukuoka: 0W 2D 3L in last 5, 0.8 goals per game

• Fagiano away record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games; Avispa home: 4W 9D 7L

• Recent H2H: Fagiano won 2-0 at their ground; 1-1 at Avispa's ground

• Fagiano's latest 10: 6W 1D 3L; Avispa's latest 10: 1W 3D 6L

My pick: Fagiano Okayama away win at 2.5.