AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eredivisie clash. AZ Alkmaar are back at their gaff, and if history is anything to go by, Excelsior might be in for a long night. The bookies have AZ at a skinny 1.33 to win, which tells you everything you need to know about who they fancy. But is there more value elsewhere? Let's crack on.

First off, AZ at home are a different beast. In their last five at their place, they haven't lost (three wins, two draws) and they've conceded a miserly two goals. That's an average of 0.4 goals against per game on home turf. They're scoring for fun too, bagging 2.2 per game. Remember that 6-0 demolition of Ajax in the cup just a week ago? That's the sort of firepower we're talking about. Yeah, they had a wobble losing 3-1 to PEC Zwolle last time out, but that was on the road. At home, they're solid.

Now, Excelsior on their travels... well, it's not pretty. They've lost 40% of their last five away, conceding two goals a game on average. They got a famous 2-1 win at Ajax back in November, but let's be honest, Ajax were having a proper mare at the time. Since then, they've been tonked 5-1 by PSV and could only draw with Telstar. The defence looks like a sieve with the plug out.

And then there's the head-to-head. Blimey. AZ have won all four of their home games against Excelsior. The scores? 8-0, 4-0, 5-0, and 4-1. That's an aggregate of 21-1. It's not a rivalry; it's a ritual sacrifice. The last time they met, it finished 8-0. I'll say that again: eight-nil. Excelsior must have nightmares about this trip.

The stats back up the story. AZ average nearly 20 shots per game at home. Excelsior, away, concede more goals (2.0) than they score (1.0). AZ's pass accuracy is a slick 84%, while Excelsior's is 80%. It's a mismatch on paper, and usually on grass too.

So, where's the bet? The home win at 1.33 is probably going to land, but there's no fun in that for a punter. The value, in my book, is in the goals. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40. Given the history (7 of the last 8 meetings went over 2.5), AZ's attacking home form, and Excelsior's leaky away defence, I can see at least three goals here. AZ could easily get three on their own.

Key Points:

AZ are unbeaten in their last five at home (W3, D2), conceding only twice.

Excelsior concede an average of 2.0 goals per game away from home.

The head-to-head record at AZ's ground is brutal: four wins, 21 goals scored, 1 conceded.

AZ's last home game was a 6-0 thrashing of Ajax.

• Excelsior's last away game was a 5-1 defeat to PSV.

Summary: All signs point to a comfortable AZ victory with a few goals. The smart money, for a bit of value, is on Over 2.5 Goals. The odds of 1.40 look generous for a fixture that averages over four goals per meeting. I'm putting my fiver on the goals flying in.