Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got AZ Picerno at home to Cosenza on 12 October, and if you've been following this one, the numbers are telling you something pretty clear.
Let's start with the big picture. AZ Picerno at home over their last 20 games have won 7, drawn 8 and lost 5, averaging 1.45 points a game and scoring 1.4 a game while conceding just 1.15. Cosenza on the road over 20 games? Three wins, seven draws, ten losses. 0.8 points a game, 0.95 scored, 1.65 conceded. That's a gap that's hard to ignore.
And the head-to-head at this ground? Six months ago, AZ Picerno won 3-1. Cosenza did pick up a 1-0 at their own end back in December, but that's the other side of the coin. At AZ Picerno's ground, the home side have got the edge.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be fair – AZ Picerno's last five has been a bit of a nightmare. One win, four losses. They lost 2-4 to Catania at home, 0-1 at Sorrento, 1-2 at Team Altamura, and 2-4 at Potenza. That's 12 goals conceded in five games. So they're not exactly in their pocket.
But here's the thing. Cosenza are in a worse spot. Zero wins in their last five. They've scored just three goals in that stretch, failed to score in three of those five, and lost their last two. On the road over 20 games, they've won just three. Their last away loss was 0-1 at Bari, and before that they were hammered 5-2 at Giugliano. This team is struggling to find a rhythm, let alone a goal.
The latest 10 games tell the same story. AZ Picerno: 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 1.6 points a game. Cosenza: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses, 0.5 points a game. That's a world of difference.
The market's pricing AZ Picerno at 1.9, which implies about 52.63%. My read is that the home side are a bit stronger than that price suggests. The home record, the head-to-head at this ground, and Cosenza's struggles on the road all point the same way. I'd put AZ Picerno's chance at around 58%, which gives you a little value at that price.
Key Points:
- AZ Picerno's home record (7W 8D 5L in 20) dwarfs Cosenza's away record (3W 7D 10L in 20)
- Head-to-head at this ground: AZ Picerno won 3-1 in April
- Cosenza have won just 1 of their last 10 and scored only 0.7 a game
- AZ Picerno's last 5 is poor (1W 4L), but the home record and H2H still favour them
- Cosenza failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and lost their last 2
Verdict: AZ Picerno home win at 1.9.