Altrincham vs Boston United Prediction
Robins vs Pilgrims: Battle of the Basement Boys
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Altrincham are in a right old pickle, aren't they? No wins in their last 10 games - that's proper relegation form, that is. They've been drawing a few lately, but at home they've been shocking, losing 4 of their last 5 on their own patch and letting in 2.20 goals per game. Ouch!
Boston United, on the other hand, have been a bit more lively on their travels. They've bagged 2.25 goals per game away from home recently, including a tasty 3-1 win at Tamworth. They're not world beaters by any stretch, but they look a cut above what Altrincham are serving up at the moment.
The head-to-head makes interesting reading too - Boston have won 2 of the 4 meetings, and Altrincham have never beaten them at home. Last time out, Boston nicked it 1-0.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The bookies have got Altrincham as favorites at 1.75, which frankly seems bonkers given their form. Boston are 4.00, which looks massive value when you consider they're scoring for fun on the road and Altrincham's defense is about as solid as a chocolate teapot.
Looking at the goals, both teams to score seems like a cracking bet. Altrincham are shipping goals at home (2.20 per game), while Boston are banging them in away (2.25 per game). The stats show both teams have scored in 70% of Altrincham's recent games and 60% of Boston's. At 1.75, that looks like decent value to me.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 also catches the eye, given Boston's away form and Altrincham's defensive nightmares. Three of the four head-to-head meetings have gone over 2.5 goals too.
I'm not touching the match result odds - they look all wrong to me. But both teams to score? That's where the value's at in my book.