remo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

This Serie B showdown between second-placed Chapecoense and third-placed remo is a battle of titans at the summit, but the real value isn't in the match outcome - it's in the goals market. Let me break down why the numbers are screaming value.

Both sides arrive in red-hot form. remo has been relentless, rattling in 21 goals across their last 10 outings (2.10 per game) while maintaining a formidable 70% win rate. Their recent performances include impressive victories over Cuiaba (3-1), Atletico Paranaense (2-1), and a statement 4-2 demolition of CRB. However, their defensive record shows vulnerabilities with 12 goals conceded, and crucially, they've seen both teams score in 80% of their recent matches.

Chapecoense, meanwhile, has built their campaign on defensive solidity coupled with efficient attacking. They've kept three clean sheets in their last 10 while averaging 1.50 goals per game. Their away form is particularly impressive - 60% win rate on the road with 1.60 goals scored per away game. Recent results like the 3-1 victory at Goias and 1-0 win at Ferroviária demonstrate their capability to perform in hostile environments.

The head-to-head record provides our final clue - their only meeting ended 1-1, with both teams finding the net. When you combine remo's high-scoring but leaky defense with Chapecoense's consistent away attacking output, the mathematics point strongly toward both teams scoring.

The market has priced Both Teams To Score at 1.91, implying a 52.4% probability. But the data suggests this is too conservative. With remo's 80% BTTS rate, Chapecoense's 60% rate, and both teams' current form profiles, I calculate the true probability closer to 58%. That's where we find our edge - the bookies have left value on the table.

Key Points:

• Both teams tied on 57 points at the top of Serie B

• remo averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game

• Chapecoense averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game

• BTTS rate: remo 80%, Chapecoense 60% in last 10 games

• Only previous H2H ended 1-1 with both teams scoring

• Chapecoense strong away form: 60% win rate, 1.60 goals per game

• Market undervaluing BTTS probability at 1.91 odds

The numbers don't lie here. This is a textbook value opportunity where the statistical reality diverges significantly from the market pricing.