Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Sunday clash at the City Ground. Nottingham Forest, sitting 17th and in a proper scrap, welcome a Tottenham side who can't seem to buy a win on their travels. On paper, Spurs are the better side, but football isn't played on paper, is it? It's played on pitches, and lately, Spurs have been leaving theirs all over the country.

Let's talk form, and I mean the real stuff – the actual results. Forest's last ten? Five wins, two draws, three losses. Not too shabby. They've battered Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield – yeah, you read that right – and put three past Leeds at home. Their wins have come against teams having a rough time, mind you, but they're getting the job done. At home, they're scoring two goals a game on average. They're having a go.

Now, Tottenham. Blimey, their away form is like a leaky bucket. In their last four trips, they've drawn one and lost three, shipping a whopping 3.25 goals per game. They got turned over 4-1 at the Arsenal, drew 2-2 at Newcastle, and lost 5-3 in Paris. They can't defend for toffee on the road. At home, they're a different animal – just beat Brentford 2-0 and Slavia Praha 3-0 – but step outside North London and it all goes pear-shaped.

The head-to-head is spicy. Spurs have won five of the eight meetings, but Forest have won three, including the last one 2-1. At the City Ground, it's two wins apiece. There's never been a draw between these two in the data we've got, which tells you someone usually finds a way.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Forest at 2.55 to win. That's implying they've got about a 39% chance. I look at Forest scoring two at home against a defence that concedes over three away, and I think their chances are better than that. Spurs might score – they average 1.5 on the road – but can they outscore a Forest side that's found its shooting boots at home? I'm not convinced.

The fancy stats like 'Over 2.5 goals' are odds-on at 2.00, and 'Both Teams to Score' is short at 1.75. There's no real value there for me. The value, the proper punt, is on Forest to get the three points. They need it more, they're at home, and they're facing a team with a serious travel sickness problem.

Key Points:

Forest average 2.00 goals per game at home.

Tottenham concede 3.25 goals per game on their travels.

Spurs are winless in their last four away matches (D1, L3).

Forest won the last head-to-head meeting 2-1.

• The odds of 2.55 for a Forest win offer value against their true chances.

The Simple Tip: All the signs point to a home win. Forest are up for the fight at the City Ground, and Tottenham's defence has been all over the shop away from home. At 2.55, backing Nottingham Forest to win is the smart play.