Guingamp vs Rodez Prediction

Saturday afternoon in Brittany sees two mid-table Ligue 2 sides go toe-to-toe, and if the history books are anything to go by, we might be in for a proper chess match. Guingamp host Rodez with just two points separating them in the standings, but while the form guide points one way, the head-to-head record screams another.

Let's start with the visitors, because Rodez are absolutely flying. They're unbeaten in their last eight league games – that's five wins and three draws if you're counting – including a handy 2-1 victory over Guingamp in the reverse fixture back in December. They've seen off Montpellier, Boulogne and Nancy recently, and even managed a creditable draw at league leaders Troyes. With 1.6 goals per game in their last ten and a habit of finding the net on the road (1.83 per away game), they're not short of firepower.

But here's the rub: Guingamp have got a bit of a hex on Rodez when they play at home. The hosts are unbeaten in four home meetings against Saturday's opponents, winning two and drawing two. Sure, Guingamp's recent form looks patchy on paper – just three wins from their last ten – but dig a little deeper and you'll see they turned over league leaders Troyes 1-0 here in late January. They can raise their game when it matters, and with four clean sheets in their last ten, they're not exactly leaking goals for fun.

The stats suggest this could be tight. Rodez have drawn nine of their 24 league fixtures this season – that's nearly 40% of their games ending all square – while four of the last nine meetings between these two have finished level. Guingamp's home attack has been modest (just a goal a game), but Rodez's away defence isn't watertight (1.33 conceded per away game).

Key Points:

• Rodez are unbeaten in their last eight Ligue 2 matches (5 wins, 3 draws)

• Guingamp have won just 3 of their last 10 league games but beat league leaders Troyes at home recently

• Four of the last nine H2H meetings have ended in draws

• Guingamp are unbeaten in four home games against Rodez (2 wins, 2 draws)

• Rodez have drawn 9 of their 24 league fixtures this season (37.5%)

The Verdict:

With Rodez in red-hot form but Guingamp holding that home hoodoo, this has the makings of a stalemate. The draw at 3.50 looks the value shout – it's landed in nearly half their historical meetings, and with both sides showing they can dig in when needed, don't be surprised if they cancel each other out again.