Corinthians vs Coritiba Prediction

Alright, mate? Fancy a flutter on the Brazilian Serie A action? We've got Corinthians hosting Coritiba, and I've been crunching the numbers while sipping me tea.

Corinthians are sitting pretty in 3rd place with seven points from their opening four games, while Coritiba are stuck down in 12th with just four points to their name. Early days, sure, but there's already a gap opening up between these two sides.

Looking at the recent form, Corinthians have been solid as a rock at the back. They've kept five clean sheets in their last ten outings and are only conceding 0.6 goals per game on average. They ground out a crucial 1-0 win away at Atletico Paranaense recently and held Cruzeiro to a 1-1 draw. Even their defeat was a narrow 1-0 loss to Novorizontino. This lot don't give much away.

Coritiba, on the other hand, are a bit more... shall we say, entertaining? They played out a mad 3-3 draw with Chapecoense and a 2-2 thriller against Operario-PR recently. They can score - especially away from home where they've bagged 1.8 goals per game - but they leak 'em like a sieve too. Only two clean sheets in ten games tells its own story.

Now here's the juicy bit that really catches my eye. Corinthians absolutely OWN this fixture. They've never lost to Coritiba at home - four wins from four attempts. In fact, Coritiba have never beaten Corinthians anywhere in nine meetings. Six wins for the hosts, three draws, zero for the visitors. That's a psychological edge you can't buy, mate.

The stats back it up an' all. Corinthians average 1.5 goals per game at home and concede just 0.75. Coritiba's away defence ships 1.4 per game. When you add in that Coritiba are winless in their last two Serie A games - losing 1-0 to Sao Paulo and drawing 3-3 with Chapecoense - while Corinthians are flying high in third, it all points one way.

Key Points:

• Corinthians are 3rd in Serie A (7 points) vs Coritiba in 12th (4 points)

• Corinthians have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games; Coritiba have managed just 2

• Head-to-head record: Corinthians unbeaten at home vs Coritiba (4 wins from 4)

• Coritiba are unbeaten in their last 5 away games (2 wins, 3 draws) but have never won at Corinthians

• Corinthians concede just 0.75 goals per game at home

Summary: The bookies have Corinthians at 1.53, which is short but fair given that 100% home record in this fixture and the defensive solidity. I'm backing the home win - it won't buy you a new motor, but it should keep the wolf from the door. Corinthians to take the three points.