Liverpool vs West Ham Prediction

Alright, listen up! We've got a proper mismatch at Anfield this Saturday afternoon. Liverpool against West Ham – and if the history books are anything to go by, the Hammers might as well not bother unpacking their kit.

Let's cut to the chase: Liverpool have won eight of the last nine against West Ham, with the other one being a draw. That's right, zero wins for the East Londoners. Even bleaker, Liverpool have won all five of the last home meetings – 100% record on their own patch against this lot. We're talking 27 goals scored to just 7 conceded in those nine games. Brutal.

Now, looking at the recent form, Liverpool are on a right good run. Seven wins from their last ten, and they've just strung together three clean sheets on the bounce – 1-0 at Forest, 3-0 against Brighton in the cup, and 1-0 up at Sunderland. They're tighter than a drum at the back and have been averaging over three goals a game at home (3.17 to be exact). West Ham, meanwhile, are floundering down in 18th with just six wins all season. They've drawn four of their last ten – including a gritty 0-0 with Bournemouth and a 1-1 against Manchester United – so they can dig in when they need to, but finding the net has been a struggle (just 1.20 per game on their travels).

The goal expectancies tell the tale: Liverpool are projected at 2.28 goals, West Ham at a measly 1.02. The Hammers have tightened up at the back recently – their conceding trend is improving – but against this Liverpool side who've hit three, four, five and even six goals in recent home outings, that defensive resilience is going to be tested like a GCSE student the night before exams.

At 1.40 for the home win, the bookies aren't exactly giving money away, but sometimes you have to hold your nose and take the short price when the data is this one-sided. Liverpool's attack might be showing slight signs of slowing (trending down from that 6-0 thrashing of Qarabag in January), but against a West Ham side that's lost 14 of 27 league games this term and got battered 5-0 and 5-1 by the Reds in recent memory, it's hard to see anything other than a comfortable afternoon for the hosts.

Key Points:

• Liverpool have won 8 of the last 9 meetings with West Ham (88.9% win rate)

• 100% home record vs West Ham in last 5 meetings at Anfield

• Liverpool kept 3 consecutive clean sheets (1-0, 3-0, 1-0) in their last 3 games

• West Ham sit 18th with just 25 points from 27 games

• Liverpool averaging 3.17 goals per game at home vs West Ham's 1.20 away

• West Ham have drawn 4 of last 10 games, showing resilience but lacking cutting edge

Summary:

It's Liverpool all day long for me. The 1.40 is skinny, but when you've got a side that's never lost at home to this opponent and is chasing the top four against a relegation-threatened outfit, you take the banker. West Ham might make it tough for an hour with their recent defensive improvements, but Liverpool's quality and that formidable head-to-head record should see them through. Back the Reds.