Coritiba vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Hello my fellow underdog lovers! Umery here, and I've got my tail wagging for this Serie A clash between Coritiba and Sao Paulo. While the market fancies the visitors from the capital, I'm looking at those juicy 2.90 odds for the home side and seeing a little puppy ready to bite!

Let's talk about Coritiba first because these lads are on a delightful little run. Unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, they've been finding the net with the enthusiasm of a puppy with a new toy. We're talking 11 goals in those five games! They drew 3-3 with Chapecoense in a thriller, fought back for 2-2 draws against Operario-PR (twice!), and secured a solid 2-0 win over Cianorte. Most impressively, they went to Cruzeiro and came away with a 2-1 victory. Yes, their home record shows only a 25% win rate recently, but that 2-0 dispatching of Cianorte shows they can dominate at home when the mood strikes.

Now, Sao Paulo are no slouches sitting pretty in 2nd place with seven points from three games. They've beaten Gremio 2-0 and Flamengo 2-1 at home, showing serious quality. But here's the thing about our high-flying friends: away from home, they're not quite as scary. Their away record shows just a 40% win rate, with draws in 40% of those games. They lost to Palmeiras 3-1 and were beaten 3-2 by Portuguesa in recent away days. They're conceding 1.40 goals per game on the road, which against Coritiba's current scoring form (2.33 goals per game over their last three), gives me hope for an upset.

The head-to-head record isn't kind to Coritiba at home historically (zero wins in four home meetings), but form is temporary and class is permanent... except when the underdog is hungry! Coritiba are averaging just 36.7% possession but making it count, while Sao Paulo dominate the ball with 57.5% but can leave gaps at the back. With both teams' goal expectancies pegged at 1.20, this should be tight, but Coritiba's recent attacking verve suggests they can exceed that mark.

Key Points:

• Coritiba unbeaten in last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws)

• Scored 11 goals in last 5 games including 3-3 thriller vs Chapecoense-sc

• Sao Paulo won only 40% of recent away games, drawing 40%

• Coritiba averaging 2.33 goals per game over last 3 matches

• BTTS landed in 8 of last 9 H2H meetings between these sides

• Coritiba beat Cruzeiro 2-1 away in their last Serie A road trip

Summary: I'm backing the little puppy here! Coritiba at 2.90 represents genuine value for the adventurous underdog hunter. Their scoring form is electric, they're unbeaten in five, and Sao Paulo's away record has enough cracks to exploit. Come on you Coxa!