Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Argentinos JRS Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's the new boys on the block, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, welcoming Argentinos JRS to their gaff. The season's just kicked off, and we've already got a bit of a story here.

Estudiantes come up from the Primera Nacional and got a proper welcome to the big time last time out, losing 2-0 away to a decent Tigre side. Before that, though, they were flying at home in the lower league, winning four of their last five on their own patch and conceding just 0.4 goals a game. They're a tough nut to crack at home, make no mistake. But let's be honest, beating the likes of Deportivo Madryn and Gimnasia Y Tiro is a different kettle of fish to facing a top-flight outfit.

Argentinos JRS, on the other hand, started their campaign with a nice 1-0 win over Sarmiento Junin. They've been in decent nick overall, winning six of their last ten. They like to have a go, averaging 1.4 goals a game, but they can be a bit leaky on the road, conceding 1.17 per trip. They've got the quality though – the stats show they dominate the ball, with over 60% possession on average and plenty of shots. They've beaten sides like Velez Sarsfield (2-0) and Belgrano Cordoba (1-0) recently, so they know how to get results.

The funny thing is, these two have never met before. So it's a proper first date, and someone's going home disappointed.

Key Points:

Home Comforts: Estudiantes have an 80% win rate at home from their last five, but that was against lower-league opposition.

Step Up in Class: Their first top-flight game ended in a 2-0 defeat to Tigre. This is another big test.

Away Form: Argentinos JRS have won half of their last six away games, scoring 1.33 goals per game on their travels.

Possession Game: The visitors average over 62% possession and 16 shots per game. They'll look to control this.

• Tight at the Back? Estudiantes concede very few at home (0.4 per game), while Argentinos have kept three clean sheets in ten.

So, what's the shout? The bookies have Argentinos as favourites at 2.32, which feels about right. Estudiantes will be organised and hard to beat at home, but the gulf in class and match sharpness at this level should tell in the end. Argentinos have the players to unpick a stubborn defence and have started the season with a win. There's a bit of value in backing the away win here.

Summary: It might not be a classic, but I fancy Argentinos JRS to have just too much for the promoted side. The home fortress might get a few cracks, and the visitors should edge it.