Leeds vs Fulham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Premier League clash at Elland Road. Leeds, sitting 16th with 22 points, welcome a Fulham side flying high in 9th with 31 points. On paper, you'd fancy the visitors, but football's not played on paper, is it? Let's crack open the numbers and see what's what.

Leeds might be down the table, but don't let that fool you. Their recent form tells a story of a team that's hard to beat but can't half stop a goal going in at the other end. In their last ten, they've only lost twice – a 4-3 thriller at Newcastle and a 3-2 defeat at Manchester City. The rest? Three wins and five draws. They're the draw specialists, holding Liverpool (twice!), Manchester United, Sunderland, and Brentford. But at home, they're a different animal. They smashed Crystal Palace 4-1, put three past Chelsea in a 3-1 win, and drew 3-3 with Liverpool and 1-1 with United. They're scoring for fun at Elland Road – 2.75 goals per game on average – but they've only kept one clean sheet in ten. That defence is leakier than a sieve.

Fulham, on the other hand, are having a tidy season. Five wins in their last ten, including a nice 2-1 victory over Chelsea and a 3-1 FA Cup win against Middlesbrough. They're scoring nearly two a game (1.9) and conceding 1.6. Away from home, they're solid if not spectacular, winning half their games and scoring 1.5 per trip. They've shown they can get a result against the big boys, drawing 2-2 with Liverpool. But like Leeds, clean sheets are rare – just two in ten.

Now, the history between these two. Fulham have had the upper hand lately, winning five of the last nine meetings to Leeds' three. The last game back in September was a tight 1-0 win for the Cottagers. But at Elland Road, it's Leeds who've won two of the three encounters. One thing's for sure – when these two meet, goals usually follow. Six of the nine clashes have seen over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in five of them.

So, what's the play here? The bookies have Leeds at 2.25 to win at home, which isn't bad value given their home form against top sides. But my eye is drawn to the Both Teams to Score market at 1.80. Look at the stats: Leeds have seen both teams score in a whopping 90% of their last ten games. Fulham aren't far behind at 80%. Leeds' last four home games? All of them had goals at both ends. Fulham's last four away? Three of them did too. With Leeds averaging over 2.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home, and Fulham netting 1.5 on the road, it's hard to see either keeper having a quiet afternoon.

Key Points:

Leeds are draw specialists but lethal at home, scoring 2.75 goals per game at Elland Road.

Fulham are in 9th and in good form, with five wins in their last ten.

Both teams have scored in 90% of Leeds' last ten and 80% of Fulham's last ten matches.

Head-to-head history shows over 2.5 goals in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

• Leeds have kept just one clean sheet in ten; Fulham only two.

The Verdict: This has all the makings of a proper, end-to-end Premier League scrap. Leeds will attack at home, Fulham have the quality to hurt them on the break. I can't see either side keeping a clean sheet. The value and the stats point firmly towards goals at both ends.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - YES