Huracan vs River Plate Prediction

Alright, settle down and get the drinks in! We've got a Friday night cracker from the Liga Profesional Argentina as Huracan host River Plate. Now, normally when the Millionaires come to town, you'd expect them to be shorter than a short-back-and-sides, but something's not right with River on their travels, and Huracan are absolutely loving life at home.

Let's talk about the hosts first. Huracan have turned their gaff into a proper fortress - three wins from their last four at home, including a cracking 3-1 win against high-flying Belgrano and tidy 1-0 victories over San Lorenzo and Sarmiento. They're banging in 1.5 goals a game on their own patch and keeping the back door locked tight with just 0.75 conceded per match. That's the sort of form that wins you points.

Now, have a butcher's at River Plate away from the Monumental and it's grim reading, mate. One win in their last six on the road, and they've only managed to stick the ball in the onion bag 0.33 times per game away from home - that's two goals in six matches! They've drawn blanks against Rosario Central and Independiente Rivadavia, and took a proper hiding from Tigre (4-1) and Velez. They couldn't score in a brothel with a handful of fivers right now when they're travelling.

The head-to-head is tighter than a Scotsman's wallet - eight meetings, three wins each and two draws. Last August it finished 1-1, and Huracan have beaten River at home before, so there's no fear factor here.

The bookies haven't caught on to River's travel sickness, pricing them up as 2.62 favourites with Huracan at a juicy 2.90. Given the home side are winning three-quarters of their home games and River can't buy a goal away, that price on Huracan is value, pure and simple. The goal expectancies back up a tight one (1.00 vs 0.54), and with River's defence solid but their attack blunt on the road, don't expect a basketball score.

Key Points:

• Huracan have won 75% of their last 4 home games, scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding just 0.75

• River Plate have won only 16.67% of their last 6 away games, scoring a paltry 0.33 goals per game on the road

• The last 8 head-to-heads are split 3-3 with 2 draws - perfectly balanced

• River have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 but failed to score in 3 of their last 6 away matches

• Under 2.5 goals is heavily odds-on at 1.36, reflecting River's struggles to find the net away from home

Summary:

River's away day blues meet Huracan's home comforts, and at 2.90, the value is with the hosts. The Millionaires are struggling to buy a goal on their travels while Huracan are beating good sides at their place. Get on the home win - it's the smart money.