Tamworth vs Boston United Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this National League clash between Tamworth and Boston United. The Lambs are sitting pretty in 8th spot with 25 points, while Boston are down in 16th with just 17 - that's an 8-point gap that tells its own story.

Tamworth are absolutely flying at the moment, aren't they? Seven wins in their last ten games, including that cracking 4-0 win over Burnley U21 in the cup and a proper decent 2-1 victory at Aldershot. Their home form is rock solid - unbeaten in their last six at their own gaff, with four wins and two draws. They're only letting in half a goal per game at home, which is proper tight.

Boston United, on the other hand, are having a bit of a mare of late. Only three wins in their last ten, and they've just shipped four goals at home to Morecambe. They did grab a point against Scunthorpe, but then got absolutely battered 5-2 by Carlisle in the FA Cup. Their away form is a bit of a mixed bag really - they score goals (two per game away) but they also leak 'em like a sieve (2.33 per game away).

The head-to-head makes for proper reading if you're a Tamworth fan. Two wins, two draws, and no losses in four meetings. They haven't lost to Boston United, and last time out it was a comfortable 3-0 win for the Lambs. That's proper dominance, that is.

Looking at the trends, Tamworth are improving across the board - scoring more, conceding less, picking up more points. Boston are going the opposite way - declining in all three areas. The maths backs this up with Tamworth's RSI at 70 (proper hot) and Boston's at 37.5 (cooling off rapidly).

The goal expectancies are 2.00 for Tamworth and 1.25 for Boston, suggesting we might see a few goals, but given how tight Tamworth are at home, I wouldn't be surprised if they keep it clean sheet again.

Key Points:

• Tamworth are 8 points clear of Boston in the league

• Tamworth have won 70% of their last 10 games vs Boston's 30%

• Tamworth unbeaten in 6 home games, Boston struggling away

• Head-to-head: Tamworth unbeaten in 4 meetings (2W, 2D)

• Tamworth's form improving, Boston's declining

All things considered, Tamworth look proper value here. They're in great form, strong at home, have the head-to-head advantage, and Boston are struggling for consistency. The odds of 1.80 for a home win look about right to me, maybe even a bit generous given how things are shaping up.