Vitesse vs Jong AZ Prediction

Right then, Friday night in the Eerste Divisie and we've got a right curious one here. Vitesse, stuck down in 19th spot with just nine wins all season, are somehow odds-on favourites at 1.85 to beat a Jong AZ side that’s been absolutely tearing it up on the road. Now, I love a home win as much as the next bloke, but the numbers here are shouting at us like a bloke who’s had one too many at the bar.

Vitesse have been struggling to get out of second gear, haven’t they? Just two wins in their last ten, including a proper pasting last time out – 3-0 down at Willem II with not so much as a whimper. They’re drawing too many games for my liking as well, five stalemates in that run, including a 2-2 at home to VVV Venlo and a goalless affair against the league leaders ADO Den Haag. Even their home record is nothing to write home about, winning just one of their last four at their own gaff and conceding 1.5 goals per game.

Now, let’s talk about Jong AZ. These lads are the definition of Jekyll and Hyde this season. At home? Hopeless. Not a single win in their last five, shipping goals left, right and centre. But away from home? They’re a different animal entirely. Four wins from their last five on the road, banging in three goals a game like it’s going out of fashion. They’ve put four past league leaders ADO Den Haag away from home, three past VVV Venlo, and they absolutely hammered Vitesse 4-0 in the reverse fixture back in September. That’s the kind of form that makes you sit up and take notice.

The goal expectancies tell the same story – this should be an open game with chances at both ends. Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 90% of their recent matches, and with Vitesse conceding 1.4 goals per game on average, don’t expect a clean sheet here. But while the Over 2.5 and BTTS markets are priced too short to get excited about, that away win at 3.50 is sticking out like a sore thumb.

Key Points:

• Jong AZ have won 80% of their last five away games, scoring 3 goals per game on the road

• Vitesse have won just 20% of their last ten matches and lost 3-0 to Willem II last time out

• The reverse fixture in September ended 4-0 to Jong AZ

• Vitesse have drawn five of their last ten, showing a lack of killer instinct

• Jong AZ have beaten top-of-the-table ADO Den Haag 4-1 away from home this season

Summary: The bookies have got this one backwards, simple as. Vitesse are struggling near the bottom while Jong AZ are flying on their travels. At 3.50, the away win is the value play here – these young AZ lads have the pace, goals and confidence to take all three points and keep their remarkable away form going.