NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a punt on some Friday night Croatian action? We've got a proper mid-table dust-up in the HNL as NK Slaven Belupo host Istra 1961, and if the numbers are anything to go by, we should be in for a lively one with goals at both ends.

Let's start with the hosts. Slaven Belupo are sitting pretty in 5th spot with 31 points from 23 games, just a single point ahead of Saturday's opponents. Their home form is where the bread's buttered – they've won half their last six at home, banging in 2.17 goals per game on average. That 2-0 win against Lokomotiva Zagreb a fortnight ago was proper solid, and even their 2-2 draw away at Vukovar last weekend showed they can find the net when it matters. The lads have only kept two clean sheets in their last ten though, so don't expect them to shut up shop completely.

Now, Istra 1961 are a funny old team. They're sixth in the table with 30 points, but get this – they've actually been better on their travels than at home! They've won 60% of their last five away days, scoring a healthy 2.4 goals per game on the road. They even turned over Hajduk Split 2-1 away from home in January, which is no mean feat. However, and it's a big however, they've hit the skids recently with three straight defeats – including a 4-0 spanking at Dinamo Zagreb and a 2-3 loss at Vukovar where they shipped three goals. Most tellingly, they haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last ten matches. Not one. Nada.

The head-to-head record between these two is tighter than a drum, with four draws in their last nine meetings including a 1-1 stalemate back in November. But here's where the maths gets interesting – the goal expectancies for this match are sitting at 2.08 for Slaven and 2.03 for Istra. That's over four goals expected in total! With Istra conceding two goals per game away from home and Slaven's defence not exactly watertight either (1.67 conceded per home game), the net should be bulging.

Both teams have been overperforming their expected goals lately – Istra especially with a whopping +2.02 finishing delta – suggesting they're clinical in front of goal even if they are a bit leaky at the back. When you've got one side that can't keep clean sheets (Istra) and another that scores over two goals a game at home, the Both Teams To Score market starts looking very tasty indeed.

Key Points:

• Istra 1961 have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches (0% clean sheet rate)

• Slaven Belupo average 2.17 goals per game at home over their last six fixtures

• The goal expectancy totals over 4.11 goals for this match (Home 2.08, Away 2.03)

• Istra's away games see BTTS land 80% of the time in their last 10 outings

• Slaven have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 games (20% rate)

• Istra are on a three-game losing streak but scored in two of those defeats (2-3 vs Vukovar, 0-4 vs Dinamo)

Summary:

This has all the makings of a proper end-to-end affair. Slaven are solid at home and know a win puts clear daylight between them and Istra, while the visitors need to stop the rot but simply can't defend right now. With both sides finding the net regularly and conceding just as often, the 1.83 on Both Teams To Score is cracking value. Get on it.