Başakşehir vs Gazişehir Gaziantep Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Sunday afternoon clash in the Süper Lig. Başakşehir, sitting 9th, welcome Gazişehir Gaziantep, who are just a few points ahead in 7th. On paper, it's a proper mid-table scrap, but the history books tell a very different story.

First things first, the head-to-head is an absolute banker for the home side. Başakşehir have won all four of their home games against Gaziantep, keeping clean sheets in the last three. That's not just a trend, that's a full-blown hoodoo. The last time these two met, back in April, it finished 2-1 to Başakşehir. So, if you're a superstitious punter, you'd be backing the hosts without a second thought.

But football isn't played in history books, is it? Let's talk recent form. Başakşehir's last ten have been a real mixed bag – four wins, two draws, four losses. They've shown they can mix it with the big boys, grabbing a 1-1 draw with Fenerbahçe and putting four past Antalyaspor. But they've also had some shockers, like losing to Genclerbirligi. Their home form is a bit of a worry, mind you. From their last four at home, they've only won once, drawn once, and lost twice, conceding nearly two goals a game on average. That's not exactly fortress material.

Gaziantep, on the other hand, are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act. Their away form reads better than their home form! From their last five on the road, they've won two, drawn two, and only lost one. They nicked a very decent 2-2 draw at Beşiktaş not long ago. But then you look at their recent results and see they lost at home to bottom-half Eyüpspor and got walloped 5-2 by Rizespor in the cup just a few days ago. Confidence can't be sky-high after that.

So, what's the game likely to serve up? Goals, I reckon. The numbers are shouting for it. Başakşehir score 1.6 on average but let in 1.1. At home, they're even leakier, conceding 1.75 per game. Gaziantep score 1.4 on average but are more potent away, bagging 1.8 per trip. Put those together, and you're looking at an average of over three goals a game when you combine their home/away stats. The bookies' goal expectancy model agrees, pointing towards over 2.5.

The odds for a home win are a bit short for my liking at 1.73, given Başakşehir's shaky home form. The head-to-head is tempting, but recent evidence suggests they're not the same force on their own patch this season. Gaziantep are capable of an upset, especially away from home, but that cup thrashing is a massive red flag.

Key Points:

Head-to-Head Hoodoo: Başakşehir have a 100% home record (4 wins) against Gaziantep.

Home Worries: Başakşehir have won just 1 of their last 4 at home (W1 D1 L2).

Away Day Specialists? Gaziantep have a better record on the road (W40% D40%) than at home recently.

Goal-Fest Potential: Combined, the teams' home/away scoring averages point to over 3 goals per game.

• Recent Shock: Gaziantep are coming off a heavy 5-2 cup defeat to Rizespor.

The Simple Verdict:

This one has goals written all over it. Başakşehir's strong historical hold over Gaziantep might see them create chances, but their leaky home defence gives the visitors hope. With both teams showing they can score and concede in equal measure recently, and the goal averages stacking up, I'm leaning towards the net bulging more than twice. The value, for me, lies in backing the goals.