Bari vs Juve Stabia Prediction

Alright, gather round. We've got a proper mid-table (well, lower-mid for Bari) Serie B scrap here. Bari, sitting 18th and in a right old pickle, host a Juve Stabia side who are flying high in 9th. On paper, you'd fancy the away side, but hold your horses – the form book tells a very different story when you look at the travel sickness.

Let's start with the hosts. Bari have been, let's be kind, rubbish. One win in their last ten, and that was back in November against Cesena. Since then, it's been a parade of draws and losses. They're struggling to hit a barn door, scoring just seven goals in that run. The one glimmer? At home, they at least manage to find the net now and then, averaging 1.20 goals per game in their own backyard. They've drawn their last two at home, 1-1 with Avellino and Pescara, and lost narrowly to a good Catanzaro side. They're hard to beat at home lately, but winning? That's another story.

Now, Juve Stabia. Ninth in the league, looking decent overall. But blimey, their away form is enough to make your eyes water. No wins in their last four on the road, scoring a grand total of one goal in those games. That's 0.25 goals per game away. They've been turned over 3-0 by Frosinone and Modena, and lost 1-0 to a struggling Sampdoria. They are a completely different animal away from home – a timid, goal-shy one.

So what happens when a team that can't win at home meets a team that can't win away? Often, not a lot. And the head-to-head backs that up. These two played just over a month ago and it finished 0-0. In fact, Bari have a decent record against Stabia at home, winning two of the three previous meetings here.

The numbers scream one thing: lack of goals. Bari score 1.20 at home, Stabia score 0.25 away. Stabia concede 2.00 on their travels. Do the maths. It points to a low-scoring affair, probably 1-0, 1-1, or another 0-0. The bookies have Under 2.5 Goals at a short price of 1.50, which tells you they think it's likely too.

Key Points:

Bari are winless in five (D2, L3) but are tougher to beat at home.

Juve Stabia have lost three of their last four away, failing to score in three of them.

The last meeting ended 0-0.

Combined, these sides average just 1.45 goals per game in their relevant home/away splits.

• The value, for me, lies in expecting a cagey, low-scoring game.

Summary: This has 'under' written all over it. Two sides lacking firepower, especially the visitors. I can't see this being a goal-fest. The smart money is on fewer than three goals.