Bari vs Palermo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B clash. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, innit? Palermo sitting pretty in 4th, flying high with 38 points, while Bari are down in the doldrums in 17th, scrapping for points. But football's not played on paper, and the stats tell a story that might just point us to a bit of value.

First up, Bari at home. Blimey, it's grim reading for the home fans. They haven't won at their own gaff in their last five tries. Nought wins. They've drawn four of their last five at home, mind you, like the 1-1 with Avellino and the 1-1 with Pescara, but they just can't get over the line. They're scoring about a goal a game at home, but shipping 1.6. Their only recent win was a proper surprise, a 2-1 away at Cesena who are up in 5th. So they've got a bit of fight in 'em, but turning up at home seems to be a problem.

Now, Palermo. They're the form side, no doubt about it. Five wins, four draws, and just one loss in their last ten. They're tight at the back, keeping clean sheets in half of those games. But here's the rub for the away win backers: on the road, they're draw specialists lately. One win, four draws, and one loss in their last six away days. They grinded out a 0-0 at Modena, a 1-1 at Mantova, and a 2-2 at Avellino. They're tough to beat, but they're not exactly blowing teams away on their travels.

When these two have met, it's been Palermo's party more often than not. They've won five of the last nine, including a 2-0 win earlier this season. Bari's only managed one win against them in that time.

So what's gonna happen? Palermo are the better side, but Bari at home, while they don't win, they don't get smashed either. They keep it relatively tight and usually nick a goal. Palermo, for all their quality, aren't a free-scoring machine on the road. I can see this being a cagey affair. Palermo might edge it 1-0, or it could be another one of those 1-1 draws Bari specialise in. A 0-0 isn't out of the question either given Palermo's defensive record.

Key Points:

Bari are winless in their last 5 home games (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss).

Palermo are in superb form (W5 D4 L1 last 10) but draw frequently away (4 draws in last 6 away).

Head-to-head heavily favours Palermo (5 wins in 9 meetings).

Bari average just 0.7 goals per game overall; Palermo concede only 0.6 per game.

• The last five meetings between these sides have seen three games with Under 2.5 goals.

All this adds up to one thing for me: goals might be in short supply. The market has Under 2.5 goals at 1.72, and that looks like the smart play here. I fancy a tight, possibly nervy game where Palermo might just do enough, but I doubt we'll see a goal fest.