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Barletta host Cavese on 12 October in Serie C Girone C, and the numbers tell two very different stories depending on which window you look at.
The case for Barletta is built on their home record, which is genuinely impressive. Across 20 home games spanning 12 months, they have won 12, drawn 6 and lost just 2, averaging 2.1 points per game. They score 1.75 goals per game at home and concede only 0.85, keeping 11 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. Cavese's away record, by contrast, is poor: 2 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses in 20 away games, with 0.75 points per game, 0.85 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. The matchup table makes the gap stark — Barletta at home outscore Cavese away by nearly a goal per game and concede significantly fewer.
But the last five games tell a different tale. Barletta have won none of their last five, losing their most recent two — 0–1 at Giugliano and 1–4 at home to Potenza — and have scored just 3 goals in that stretch. Cavese, meanwhile, have won their last two, beating Casertana 2–0 and Savoia 4–2 at home, and sit on 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last five. In the broader 10-game window, Cavese (3W 2D 5L, 1.1 points per game) actually outperform Barletta (1W 4D 5L, 0.7 points per game).
The head-to-head is dated — the two sides last met in January 2023 and September 2022, both in Serie D, and those two meetings (a 1–1 draw at Barletta and a 0–1 away win for Barletta) offer little guidance for a fixture in a different competition and era.
The best counter-argument to a Barletta win is simply their current form. Five games without a win, two consecutive defeats, and a goal difference of minus 6 in that stretch suggest a side struggling to find its rhythm. Cavese's recent output — 10 goals scored in their last five, 2 per game — shows a team scoring with confidence, even if their away record over 20 games has been poor.
Key Points:
- Barletta's 20-game home record (12W 6D 2L, 2.1 pts/game) is the strongest single indicator in this fixture
- Cavese's 20-game away record (2W 9D 9L, 0.75 pts/game) is the weakest
- Barletta have won 0 of their last 5; Cavese have won 2 of their last 5
- The head-to-head is 3–4 years old and offers no current-form guidance
- The market's view of a Barletta win sits around 46%, reflecting the mixed signals
The home/away records point firmly to Barletta, but their last five games make it hard to back them with genuine confidence. The available prices do not offer a clear edge given the conflicting evidence between the strong venue records and the poor recent form. No Bet.