Barnsley vs Peterborough Prediction

Tuesday night under the lights at Oakwell, and we've got a proper League One cracker on the cards. Barnsley host Peterborough in a clash that has 'goals' written all over it – and I'm not just talking about the half-time pies.

The Tykes have been harder to shake off than a stubborn cold lately. Five draws in their last ten tells you everything – they don't know when they're beaten, but they can't quite get over the line either. That 3-3 thriller against AFC Wimbledon at the weekend was pure entertainment, and they've only lost once in their last four at home. Mind you, that defence is leakier than my old garden shed – 1.75 goals conceded per game at Oakwell, and they've shipped 20 in their last ten overall. They score for fun at home though, banging in 2.5 a game.

Now Peterborough, they're a different kettle of fish entirely. No middle ground with this lot – five wins, five losses in their last ten, not a draw in sight. They absolutely demolished Wigan 6-1 recently, but then got turned over 2-0 by Bradford at the weekend. Away from home it's the same story – they either win or lose, and they score 1.33 while conceding 1.5 on their travels.

Here's the kicker though – Barnsley simply cannot beat Peterborough at home. The head-to-head is bonkers: the Tykes have won four of the last nine meetings overall, but at Oakwell? Zero wins. Zilch. Nada. They've lost three and drawn one on their own patch against the Posh, who've won the last two meetings 1-0. Peterborough are their bogey team.

With both sides finding the net regularly – Barnsley's seen BTTS in 70% of recent games – and neither defence looking particularly solid, the maths points to a goal-fest. The goal expectancies have this down for 3.5+ goals, and when you look at Barnsley's recent results (eight of their last ten have gone over), it makes perfect sense.

Key Points:

• Barnsley are unbeaten in their last four home games (2 wins, 2 draws) but concede 1.75 goals per game at Oakwell

• Peterborough have no draws in their last ten – it's win or bust with these lads

• Head-to-head history favours the visitors at this ground – Barnsley have never beaten Peterborough at home (0-1-3 record)

• Eight of Barnsley's last ten matches have finished over 2.5 goals

• Both teams have conceded in the majority of recent fixtures

The Verdict:

Forget trying to pick a winner in this lottery – the value is in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 looks a cracking bet given the attacking numbers and defensive frailties on show. I'm expecting a 2-1 or 3-1 type of night, so get on the overs and enjoy the ride.