Barnsley vs Stevenage Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One clash. Barnsley welcome Stevenage to Oakwell and if you're after a quiet, boring afternoon, you might be in the wrong place. The numbers are shouting that this one could have a few goals in it.

Barnsley are sitting 15th, but they've got games in hand. Their problem? They've been about as solid at the back as a paper towel in a rainstorm. In their last ten games, they've conceded a whopping 22 goals. That's more than two a game. They got turned over 4-0 by league leaders Cardiff last time out, and even in their 2-1 win over Blackpool, they still let one in. At home, they're scoring a decent 1.75 per game, but they're also letting in two. They're the definition of a 'you score, we'll score' team at the moment.

Stevenage are the higher-flyers in 7th and they're a tougher nut to crack. They've only lost three of their last ten and they're good for a draw – five of them, in fact. They're not free-scoring on their travels, managing just a goal a game away, but they're tighter at the back, conceding 1.6 on average. Their last away day was a 3-0 loss at Exeter, but before that they nicked a 2-1 at Cardiff and a 3-1 win at Stockport. They know how to get a result on the road.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Tyke. Stevenage have won three of the last four meetings, including a 1-0 win last season. More importantly for us, three of those four clashes saw over 2.5 goals. The pattern is there.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Over 2.5 goals at 2.15. Let's do the maths. Barnsley's games have gone over 2.5 in seven of their last ten. Stevenage's have done it in five of ten. Put simply, when these two are involved, there's a better than even chance of at least three goals. Barnsley's defence is likely to gift a chance or two, and they've got enough about them going forward to trouble Stevenage's back line.

Key Points:

Barnsley have conceded 22 goals in their last 10 matches.

7 of Barnsley's last 10 games featured Over 2.5 goals.

Stevenage have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings.

3 of the last 4 H2H matches had Over 2.5 goals.

• Stevenage are 7th and harder to beat, but Barnsley score regularly at home (1.75 per game).

All the signs point towards goals. Stevenage might fancy their chances given the history, but Barnsley at home are always capable of causing a stir. I'm not convinced it'll be a classic, but I am convinced we'll see the net bulge at least three times. The value, for me, lies with the overs.