Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Right, folks, it's Bayern München at home to RB Leipzig, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a story to tell.

Bayern's home record over the last 20 games is the stuff of legend – 17 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. They've scored 75 goals at home in those 20 games, which works out to 3.75 a game, and they've only conceded 21. That's a side that opens up at home and doesn't let the other lot breathe. In their last five matches across all competitions, they've won three and drawn two, scoring 19 and conceding 6. The last two were draws – 3–3 at Viking in the Champions League and 2–2 at Augsburg – but even in those, Bayern were scoring plenty. Five of those last five games went over 2.5 goals, and at home, 17 of their last 20 have done the same.

Now look at the head-to-head. In the last 12 months, Bayern have won all three meetings against Leipzig: 3–1 at home, 2–0 at home, and a 5–1 away. Two of those three went over 2.5 goals. The older meetings go back nine years and the pattern holds – 15 Bayern wins from 26, with 17 of those 26 going over 2.5. The dates on those older games do dilute the picture, but the recent form is clear.

Leipzig, for their part, are in decent form. They've won their last two – 1–0 to PSV Eindhoven and a 6–0 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt – and scored 7 without conceding a goal. But their away record over the last 20 games is 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses. They've scored 28 away in those 20 games (1.4 a game) and conceded 37 (1.85 a game). Their last two away trips ended in losses: 0–2 at Bayer Leverkusen and 1–4 at Como.

The counter-argument? Well, Bayern's last two games were draws, and they conceded 5 in those. Leipzig are on a two-game winning run and their xG numbers in recent games show they're creating plenty – 3.38 per game over three matches. And Leipzig's away record does show 14 of 20 games going over 2.5, so they're not a team that shuts up shop on the road. But the overall picture – Bayern's home scoring, the head-to-head, the goal totals – all points the same way.

Key Points:

• Bayern have won all 3 recent head-to-head meetings

• Bayern's home record: 17W 2D 1L in 20 games, 3.75 goals scored per game

• Leipzig's away record: 7W 2D 11L in 20 games, 1.85 goals conceded per game

• 5 of Bayern's last 5 games went over 2.5; 17 of their last 20 home games did the same

• Leipzig's last two away games both ended in losses (0–2 and 1–4)

The numbers don't lie, and the market's pricing this at 1.16 for over 2.5 goals with an implied probability of 86.21%. My own read, based on the home record, the head-to-head and the goal totals, is that this one goes over 2.5 with a fair bit of confidence. I rate it at around 89%, which sits above the market's view. My tip: over 2.5 goals.