Benevento vs Cesena Prediction

Let's cut through the noise and look at what the numbers actually say about this one. Benevento at home are a different animal from the side that lost 1–2 at Frosinone eight days ago. Over 20 home games, spanning from October 2025 to September 2026, they have won 13, drawn 5 and lost just 2. That is 2.2 points per game, 2.1 goals scored per game and 0.95 conceded per game. They have kept a clean sheet in 6 of those 20 and failed to score in only 1. The 3–1 win over Hellas Verona on 11 September at their own ground is a reminder of what this side can do when the conditions are right.

Now look at the other side of the table. Cesena's away record over 20 games — spanning 11 months from September 2025 to September 2026 — reads 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. That is 0.9 points per game, 0.65 goals scored per game and 1.45 conceded per game. They have failed to score in 10 of those 20 away outings. The gap between these two records is not subtle. Benevento at home are scoring 2.1 goals per game compared to 0.65 for Cesena away, and conceding 0.95 per game compared to 1.45.

Cesena's current run of three consecutive draws — scoring 4 and conceding 4 across those games — is the best counter-argument you can build. They have not lost in five matches, and they have scored in every single one of those five. That 5-for-5 BTTS record in their last five is notable. But draws are not wins, and the away record over 20 games tells you that Cesena simply do not win on the road. Three draws in a row is not a winning run; it is a team that cannot find the breakthrough away from home.

The head-to-head is dated — the last two meetings were in 2016 and 2017, with Benevento winning 2–1 at home and Cesena winning 4–1 at their own ground. That is nine years of football between those games and this one. I will not pretend it carries weight. What matters is the current home and away records, and those point firmly in one direction.

The one caution flag: Benevento's most recent game was a 1–2 loss at Frosinone, and their last five overall shows 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. They are not in perfect form. But the 3–1 home win over Verona four weeks ago and the 1–0 away win over Carrarese three weeks ago show they can still produce. The question is whether that home record of 13 wins in 20 games holds up against a side that has won just 4 of 20 away.

Key Points:

• Benevento home: 13W 5D 2L in 20 games, 2.1 goals scored per game, 0.95 conceded per game

• Cesena away: 4W 6D 10L in 20 games, 0.65 goals scored per game, 1.45 conceded per game

• Cesena have drawn their last 3 games and scored in all 5 of their last 5, but have not won in that run

• The head-to-head is 9 years old and carries no current-form weight

• Benevento's most recent result was a 1–2 loss at Frosinone, but they won 3–1 at home four weeks ago

The market prices Benevento at 1.92, implying a 52.08% chance. My read of the home and away records, the goal-scoring gap and Cesena's inability to win on the road puts the true probability above that figure. The numbers say this is where the value sits. I'm backing the home win.