Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's have a chat about this one. Benfica host Vitória SC on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this looks like a comfortable evening for the home side.
Benfica have been in serious form. Four wins from their last five games, including a 4-0 demolition of Moreirense and a 3-0 win over Maritimo. Yes, they dropped a 3-1 game at Porto's ground three weeks ago — and a red card in the 35th minute didn't help — but that's the only blemish. Across their last 10 matches in all competitions, they've won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1, scoring 2.9 goals a game while conceding just 0.8. At home specifically, over 20 games, Benfica have won 14, drawn 3 and lost 3, averaging 2.8 goals per game. That's a lot of football.
Now look at Vitória SC on the road. Over their last 20 away games, they've won 7, drawn 2 and lost 11. They score 1.15 per game away and concede 1.7. Their last five matches have been 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, and they've failed to score in two of those five. The most recent outing was a 1-1 draw at home against Moreirense, and before that they lost 1-2 to Academico Viseu on the road.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months tells the story even more clearly. Benfica beat Vitória SC 3-0 at home in March, and won 3-0 at Vitória SC's ground in November. Six goals, zero conceded. In both recent meetings, Benfica have done the business.
The counter-argument? Well, Benfica did lose to Porto recently, and Vitória SC did grab a point against Moreirense last time out. But one red-card-affected loss doesn't rewrite a 14-3-3 home record, and a 1-1 draw at home doesn't fix an 11-loss away record.
Key Points:
- Benfica have won 8 of their last 10 games across all competitions, scoring 2.9 per game
- Vitória SC have lost 11 of their last 20 away games, scoring just 1.15 per game
- Benfica won both recent head-to-head meetings, 3-0 each, scoring 6 and conceding 0
- Benfica's home record: 14 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses in 20 games, averaging 2.8 goals per game
- The 80% market view for a Benfica win looks a touch conservative given the evidence
Verdict: Benfica home win at 1.25.