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Right, so we've got Bengaluru hosting SC Delhi at home on 10 October, and the numbers here paint a pretty clear picture if you know how to read 'em.
Bengaluru have been solid in front of their own fans. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses, scoring 1.45 per game and conceding just 0.9. Ten of those 20 were clean sheets. And their last five matches across all grounds have been 2 wins and 3 draws with no losses — they've won their last two, scoring 3 and conceding just 1. The head-to-head at this venue on 15 February was a 2–0 Bengaluru win, and that's the only meeting between these two sides in the last 12 months.
Now look at SC Delhi on the road. Nine away games, and they've won just one of them. Two draws, six losses. They're conceding 1.89 per game away and have managed only one clean sheet in those nine trips. Their last five matches have been 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, and they lost their most recent one 1–2 to ATK Mohun Bagan. In the matchup table, Bengaluru's home points per game sit at 1.55 while SC Delhi's away figure is 0.56. That's a gap that's hard to ignore, and it's the kind of thing that makes you want to grab a beer and back the home side.
The counter-argument, though, is that Bengaluru's home record is not dominant. Seven draws in 20 home games means they've been flat in front of their own crowd more often than you'd expect. The 0–0 draw with Mumbai City at home on 25 April is a real data point, and SC Delhi have drawn three of their last five, so a stalemate is not out of the question. The 20-game home record also stretches back 18 months, so some of those results are older and dilute the current picture.
Key Points:
- Bengaluru are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning the last two, and have won 8 of their 20 home games.
- SC Delhi have won just 1 of their 9 away games and lost their most recent match.
- The only head-to-head meeting in the last 12 months was a 2–0 Bengaluru win at this venue.
- Bengaluru's home record includes 7 draws, and SC Delhi have drawn 3 of their last 5, keeping the draw alive as a possibility.
- SC Delhi's away defence is leaking at 1.89 conceded per game, while Bengaluru score 1.45 per game at home.
The football here clearly favours Bengaluru, but the 1.67 price on a home win doesn't give me enough margin to feel comfortable when the home record includes 7 draws in 20 games and the away side has kept 3 of their last 5 level. No bet.