Mantova vs Sudtirol Prediction
Bottom Boys Battle: Can Mantova Stop the Bleeding?
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this scrap at the bottom. Mantova are in a right old mess, sitting second from bottom with just four points on the board. They've been shipping goals like there's no tomorrow - two per game on average, and at home it's even worse with 2.75 conceded per match. Their recent home form is enough to make any fan weep: a 5-1 hammering by Frosinone and a 3-1 loss to Modena. Ouch.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, are plodding along in mid-table. Nothing spectacular, but they're getting the job done more often than not. They've scored in 9 of their last 10 games and managed to find the net against decent sides like Frosinone (2-2) and Reggiana (3-1). The thing with Sudtirol though, is they can't defend to save their lives - zero clean sheets in 10 matches. Zero!
When you look at the head-to-head, it's a bit of a mixed bag. Mantova actually have a decent home record against Sudtirol (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), but that was a different Mantova side. This current version looks all at sea.
The stats paint a clear picture: Mantova's home games see an average of 4 goals, while Sudtirol's away matches average 3. Both teams are leaking goals left, right, and centre. Mantova have kept just one clean sheet in 10 games, Sudtirol none at all.
Given both teams' defensive nightmares and the fact Sudtirol know how to find the net, I'm expecting goals at both ends. Mantova might be desperate for a win at home, but their defence is just too generous.
Key Points:
- Mantova have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home games
- Sudtirol have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches
- Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last 10 games combined
- 90% of Sudtirol's recent games have seen both teams score
- Mantova's only win this season came against bottom-half Pescara
The value here is screaming both teams to score. Neither defence can be trusted, and Sudtirol's attack should have enough to breach Mantova's leaky backline. At 1.75, it looks decent value for what should be an open, goal-filled affair.