Almeria vs Granada CF Prediction

The Segunda División resumes with a compelling Andalusian derby as fourth-placed Almeria welcome struggling Granada CF to their home ground. With just 11 points separating the sides in the table, this matchup presents an intriguing clash of styles: Almeria's push for promotion against Granada's battle to climb away from the relegation zone.

Almeria's season has been largely positive, sitting fourth with 32 points from 19 games, boasting a healthy +9 goal difference. However, their recent form reveals some vulnerability. After impressive victories like the 3-0 demolition of Cadiz and 3-1 win over Eibar, they've stumbled with back-to-back league defeats against Burgos (1-2) and Malaga (1-2). Their home record shows strength with 1.75 goals scored and just 0.75 conceded per game in their last four home matches, but they've kept only one clean sheet in those four outings.

Granada CF presents a curious case. Positioned 18th with 21 points, their record shows just 4 wins from 19 matches, but an astonishing 9 draws highlight their resilience. Their recent form of 4 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses in the last 10 games demonstrates they're far from pushovers. Notably, they secured a credible 2-2 draw at league leaders Racing Santander and won 1-0 at Cultural Leonesa. While their attack averages 1.60 goals per game, their defense concedes exactly 1.00, creating the conditions for closely contested matches.

The head-to-head history couldn't be more balanced: 3 wins each and 3 draws from 9 meetings. More significantly for today's analysis, both teams have scored in 6 of those 9 encounters (66.7%), with 5 matches producing over 2.5 goals. Almeria holds the home advantage historically with 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 home meetings, though Granada won the most recent clash 3-1 back in April 2025.

Statistically, this match sets up perfectly for goals at both ends. Almeria's 'both teams to score' rate stands at 60% over their last 10 games, while Granada's is even higher at 70%. Almeria's attacking numbers are solid with 1.80 goals scored per game overall, though they've been less prolific recently with just 1.33 goals per game in their last three outings. Granada's away form shows they can find the net on the road, averaging 1.67 goals in their last six away matches.

Defensively, Almeria's home record appears strong with 0.75 goals conceded, but this comes from a small sample of just four games. Their overall defensive record of 1.10 goals conceded per game suggests they're not impregnable. Granada's defense has been reasonably tight away from home, conceding exactly 1.00 per game, but they've managed only two clean sheets in their last ten matches overall.

Key Points:

• Almeria sits 4th with 32 points; Granada languishes in 18th with 21 points

• Both teams have scored in 66.7% of historical meetings between these sides

• Granada has drawn 9 of 19 league games this season - the highest draw rate in the division

• Almeria has lost their last two league matches after previously strong form

• Granada has lost just twice in their last ten games across all competitions

• Both teams score in 60% of Almeria's recent games and 70% of Granada's

• Almeria averages 1.75 goals scored at home; Granada averages 1.67 goals scored away

Summary: This derby presents a classic case of league position versus recent form. While Almeria clearly possesses the superior squad and home advantage, Granada's resilience and ability to score in most games cannot be ignored. The historical data strongly suggests both teams will find the net, with 6 of 9 previous meetings seeing goals at both ends. Given the statistical evidence and current form patterns, the most reliable angle appears to be backing both teams to score.