Billericay Town vs Farnborough Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you – this one's got the smell of a home win for Billericay Town, and I'm not just saying that because I've got a cold one in my hand and a braai going. The numbers don't lie, and they're telling me something pretty clear.

Billericay Town at home are a force. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 14, drawn 3 and lost just 3. That's 2.25 points per game, and they're scoring 2.1 per game while conceding only 1.15. Nine of those 20 home games ended with a clean sheet, and in 20 home games they've never once failed to score. That last bit is the one that gets me – 20 home games, never failed to score. You can't build a defence on that kind of consistency, but you sure as hell can build a win on it.

Their last five matches tell the same story. Three wins, a draw and a loss, with 2.2 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded. All five of those games went over 2.5 goals, and in four of five both teams found the net. They're on a one-game winning run after that 3–0 over Torquay two weeks ago, and the confidence is there.

Now Farnborough. Look at their last five: no wins, two draws and three losses. They've scored just 0.8 per game and conceded 1.8. Three of those five games saw them fail to score entirely. Over their last 10 matches, they've won just 2, drawn 3 and lost 5, with 0.9 points per game. They've failed to score in 5 of those 10. That's not a team that's going to walk into Billericay's ground and find a way through.

Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses – 1.5 points per game. Better than their recent form suggests, but the away games in their last five matches have been a different story: two draws and a loss, with a red card to Farnborough in one of those. They're not the same team they were when they were picking up points on the road.

The head-to-head is blank – no meetings on record – so we're going on current form and venue records, and those point firmly one way.

The counter-argument? Farnborough's away record over 20 games isn't terrible – 8 wins is respectable, and they've only failed to score in 2 of those 20. And Billericay Town did lose to Enfield Town 1–3 at home three weeks ago in the FA Cup, so they're not untouchable. But one loss doesn't undo 14 wins in 20 home games.

Key Points:

• Billericay Town: 14W 3D 3L in 20 home games, 2.1 scored per game, 0/20 failed to score

• Farnborough: 0W 2D 3L in last 5, 0.8 scored per game, 5/10 failed to score

• Billericay Town home: 9/20 clean sheets, 13/20 over 2.5 goals

• Farnborough away: 8W 6D 6L in 20 games, but recent form is poor

• No head-to-head meetings on record

I'm going with the Billericay Town home win.