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Right, so we've got BK Hacken at home to host Orgryte IS on 11 October, and I'll be straight with you – the numbers here paint a pretty clear picture.
BK Hacken have been in the form of their lives recently. They've won their last two games – a 1-0 away at IF Elfsborg and a 5-0 thrashing of Kalmar FF – and in those two they've scored six and conceded nothing. That's the sort of run that makes you feel the back four are locked in and the front end is clicking. Look at their home record over 20 games: 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses, averaging 1.9 goals a game and keeping clean sheets in 5 of those 20. That's a solid home base, and it's the sort of record that makes you comfortable when the away team is struggling.
Now turn to what Orgryte IS are doing on the road. Over 20 away games – and mind you, those span 11 months, so the older results do dilute the picture – they've won just 2, drawn 6 and lost 12. They're averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game away, and they've failed to score in 10 of those 20. Their last two games have been losses: 1-2 at home to Sirius and 1-4 away at Malmo, with just 2 goals scored and 6 conceded. That's a team that's struggling to find a rhythm, let alone one that's going to turn up at BK Hacken's ground and cause real problems.
The head-to-head is a bit thinner than you'd like. In the last 12 months they've met twice. BK Hacken won 2-0 at home in February (a friendly, mind you), and Orgryte came back with a 4-3 win at their own ground in July. So it's split one apiece, and that July game was a bit of a scare for Hacken. But that was at Orgryte's end, and the form since has swung firmly in Hacken's favour.
The counter-argument, if there is one, is that BK Hacken's last five isn't all sunshine. They drew 1-1 at home to Mjallby and 0-0 away at Gais, and they lost 1-3 at home to Vasteras in August with a red card in the 42nd minute. So they're not perfect, and that 4-3 loss to Orgryte in July shows this isn't a one-sided affair. Orgryte did find the net in that game, and they've scored in 4 of their last 5. But the overall picture – Hacken's home record against Orgryte's away record – tells you who's got the edge.
Key Points:
- BK Hacken have won their last two, scoring 6 and conceding 0, and average 1.9 goals per home game over 20 fixtures.
- Orgryte IS have lost their last two, and over 20 away games they've won just 2 and failed to score in 10.
- The head-to-head is split: BK Hacken won 2-0 at home in February, Orgryte won 4-3 at their ground in July.
- BK Hacken's home record is 10W 6D 4L; Orgryte's away record is 2W 6D 12L.
- Orgryte's away record spans 11 months, so older results dilute the current picture.
The football here points firmly to BK Hacken, but with no available prices that can be used for a recommendation, I'm sitting this one out. No Bet.