Blackburn vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship scrap. Blackburn Rovers welcome Sheffield Wednesday to Ewood Park, and on paper, it's a classic six-pointer at the wrong end of the table. But don't let the phrase 'relegation battle' fool you – one of these sides is in a fight, the other looks like they've already thrown in the towel.

Let's start with the cold, hard facts. Blackburn are 22nd, which ain't great, but Wednesday are propping up the entire league with a frankly astonishing -7 points. They've managed just one win all season. One! In their last ten games, they've picked up a measly two points, scoring only three goals and conceding nineteen. On the road, it's even grimmer: four losses from four, conceding nearly three goals a game on average. They're not just struggling to score; they're finding it impossible to keep the ball out of their own net away from home.

Blackburn, by comparison, are having a bad time but they're still in the game. They've won one, drawn five, and lost four of their last ten. They're picking up points here and there, like that 2-0 home win over Millwall and draws with sides like Watford and Middlesbrough. More importantly, they're keeping it tight at the back sometimes, with clean sheets in 40% of those recent matches. At home, they score about a goal a game and concede just over one. It's not free-flowing football, but it's a platform.

Their last meeting was just over a month ago, a 0-0 draw at Hillsborough. Blackburn couldn't break them down then, but that was on Wednesday's patch. This time, it's at Ewood, and the dynamics are completely different. Wednesday's away form is a horror show – recent trips have seen them lose 3-0 to QPR, 3-0 to Preston, and 2-0 to Bristol City. They are there for the taking.

The stats tell the story too. Blackburn average over 10 shots a game to Wednesday's 6.6, and they have more of the ball. Wednesday's goalkeeper is the busiest man on the pitch, making over four saves a game on average. You don't need a maths degree to work out that if one team can't score and the other is creating more chances, the result tends to be pretty straightforward.

So, what's the tip? Sometimes the bookies get it spot on, and here they've made Blackburn the heavy favourites at 1.49. Normally, I'd be wary of such a short price, but sometimes you just have to call a spade a spade. This is the worst team in the league visiting a side desperate for points. Blackburn's home form, while not spectacular, is miles better than Wednesday's travel sickness. The value isn't in the price being generous; it's in the probability being so much higher than the odds suggest. I make Blackburn's chance of winning this closer to three in four.

Key Points:

Sheffield Wednesday are bottom with -7 points and have lost their last four away games, conceding 2.75 goals per game on average.

Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their last ten matches.

In their last ten games, Wednesday have scored only 3 goals; Blackburn have scored 6.

The last head-to-head ended 0-0, but that was at Hillsborough.

• Blackburn average 1.0 goals per game at home; Wednesday concede 2.75 per game away.

Summary: This isn't a game for overcomplicating things. Blackburn are poor, but Sheffield Wednesday are in a different stratosphere of poor, especially on their travels. All the data points to a home win. The odds are short, but the chance of it landing is high. My money's on Blackburn getting the job done.

My Tip: HOME_WIN