Blackpool vs Stockport County Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this League One clash. Blackpool, sitting 17th, welcome high-flying Stockport County, who are 5th and hunting promotion. On paper, you'd fancy the away side, but football's not played on paper, is it? It's played on a cold Tuesday night in Blackpool, and the Seasiders have been turning their home patch into a bit of a fortress lately.

Blackpool's recent results tell a story of two sides. They smashed Rotherham 4-0 and Doncaster 1-0 at home in late December, and just this week they saw off Northampton 2-0. But they've also had some proper stinkers, like that 5-1 drubbing at Port Vale and a 2-1 home loss to Bradford. Their home form is the key here: 60% wins from their last five at Bloomfield Road, scoring two a game and conceding less than one. They're tight at the back when they're on it.

Stockport, the Hatters, are having a cracking season. They're up in 5th for a reason. Their recent 1-1 draw away at league leaders Cardiff shows they can mix it with the best. But their away form is a bit of a puzzle. They're solid enough, conceding just 0.75 goals per game on the road, but they only score 0.75 themselves. Draws at Northampton and Cardiff, a loss at Reading – they're not exactly blowing teams away on their travels.

Now, the head-to-head makes grim reading if you're a Blackpool fan. Stockport have won all three meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this season. The Seasiders have only scored once in those three games. That's a mental hurdle they'll need to clear.

So, what's the betting angle? The bookies have Stockport as slight favourites at 2.43, with the home win at a tasty 2.96. But my eye is drawn to the goals market. Blackpool are strong defensively at home (0.8 goals conceded per game). Stockport are tight but blunt away (0.75 goals scored per game). Add it all up, and this has the feel of a proper, tense, one-goal-in-it kind of affair. The goal expectancies point to a low total, and the stats back it up.

Key Points:

Blackpool have won 60% of their last 5 home games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 per match.

Stockport are solid away but lack a cutting edge, scoring just 0.75 goals per game on the road.

Stockport have won all three previous meetings, keeping two clean sheets.

Blackpool boast a 50% clean sheet rate over their last 10 games.

• The combined average goals in Blackpool's home games and Stockport's away games is just 2.15.

The Simple Tip: All the signs point to a tight, low-scoring game. At odds of 1.91, the value bet is UNDER 2.5 GOALS.