Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK Prediction

The numbers don't lie, but they don't always offer value either — and that's where discipline comes in.

The statistical case for Bodo/Glimt here is about as one-sided as it gets. Over the last 20 home games, they've won 16, drawn 3 and lost just once, scoring 3.0 per game and conceding 0.7. Kristiansund BK's away record over the last 20 games is 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses, with 1.1 scored per game and 1.95 conceded. The head-to-head stretches back seven years and Bodo/Glimt have won 13 of 15 meetings without a single defeat. The most recent meeting, on 6 April at Kristiansund BK's ground, ended 0–3.

Bodo/Glimt's recent form has been a mix of high-scoring wins and uncomfortable defeats. They beat Rana 6–2 in the cup on 1 October, won 3–2 at home to Sandefjord on 14 September, and took a 2–1 result at Fredrikstad on 4 September. But they lost 1–2 at Brann on 20 September and were demolished 0–5 by Bayern München in the Champions League on 10 September. All five of those games went over 2.5 goals. Kristiansund BK's last two games have been losses — 0–3 at Molde on 4 October and 1–3 at home to Rosenborg on 19 September — and they've conceded 6 goals in that span.

The counter-argument is that Bodo/Glimt are not flawless. Two losses in five recent games, including the 0–5 to Bayern, show they can be exposed. Kristiansund BK did beat Tromso 2–0 at home on 6 September and won 2–1 at Brattvåg in the cup on 16 September, so they're not without quality. But their away record of 4 wins from 20 games is the defining number, and the head-to-head has never gone the other way.

Key Points:

• Bodo/Glimt have won 16 of 20 home games, scoring 3.0 per game and conceding 0.7

• Kristiansund BK have lost 11 of 20 away games, scoring 1.1 per game and conceding 1.95

• Bodo/Glimt have won 13 of 15 head-to-head meetings without a loss; the most recent was 3–0 on 6 April

• Bodo/Glimt's last 5 games all went over 2.5 goals; Kristiansund BK's last 2 have been losses

• The market prices Bodo/Glimt as heavy favourites, but the price doesn't offer sufficient value against the evidence

No Bet.