Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK Prediction

Right, so we've got Bodo/Glimt at home against Kristiansund BK on 10 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one looks like it's been decided before the first whistle.

Let's start with the home record. Bodo/Glimt have won 16 of their last 20 home games, drawing 3 and losing just 1. They score 3 goals per game at home and concede 0.7. That's a side that opens up at their ground and doesn't let much in. Kristiansund BK, on the other hand, have won just 4 of their last 20 away games, drawing 5 and losing 11. They score 1.1 per game on the road and concede 1.95. The gap between these two sides in this specific setup is enormous.

The head-to-head tells the same story. Bodo/Glimt have won 13 of 15 meetings against Kristiansund BK, with 2 draws and no losses. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in April at Kristiansund BK's ground, and Bodo/Glimt won 3-0. The older meetings at Bodo/Glimt's ground — 7-1 and 4-0 — are historical, but they paint a picture of a team that has dominated this fixture for years.

Kristiansund BK's current form is grim. They've lost their last two games, scoring just 1 and conceding 6. That includes a 1-8 thrashing at Viking and a 0-3 defeat at Molde. Bodo/Glimt, for their part, have won their last game — a 6-2 away win at Rana — and sit at 3 wins from their last 5, though they did drop points to Brann (1-2 away) and Bayern München (0-5 away in the Champions League). The Bayern game is a different beast entirely, and the Brann loss was on the road. At home, Bodo/Glimt have only lost once in 20 games.

The counter-argument? Well, Bodo/Glimt have lost 2 of their last 5, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of those 5. Their defence has been leaky recently, conceding 2.4 per game. Kristiansund BK did beat Brattvåg 2-1 in the cup and won 2-0 at home against Tromso, so they're not without a spark. And the BTTS numbers are split — Bodo/Glimt's home record shows both teams scoring in 9 of 20, while Kristiansund BK's away record shows it in 11 of 20. So there's a decent chance Kristiansund nick a goal.

But here's the rub. The market has Bodo/Glimt at 1.09, which carries a bookmaker-implied probability of 91.74%. My own read, factoring in the 80% home win rate, the 2 recent losses (one of which was a UCL game against a top-flight side), and the fact that Kristiansund BK are not entirely without a goal, puts Bodo/Glimt's chances closer to 85-88%. That's strong, but it's not the level the price demands for a recommendation. The over 2.5 at 1.17 is similarly compelling — Bodo/Glimt's last 5 games all went over, and 17 of 20 home games have — but I can't honestly rate it above the level the price requires.

So the football is clear, the numbers point one way, but the prices don't leave me a bet I can back with the confidence I need.

Key Points:

• Bodo/Glimt have won 16 of 20 home games, scoring 3 per game and conceding 0.7

• Kristiansund BK have won just 4 of 20 away games and lost their last 2 (scored 1, conceded 6)

• Bodo/Glimt have won 13 of 15 head-to-head meetings; the only recent meeting was a 3-0 away win

• Bodo/Glimt's last 5 games all went over 2.5 goals

• The 1.09 home win price carries a 91.74% implied probability, but the evidence supports a lower figure

Verdict: No Bet.