Bohemians vs Shelbourne Prediction

The force is strong with this one, and it has been with this fixture for a long time. Three meetings at Bohemians' ground in the last five encounters, and in every single one, both sides found the net. Two-two, two-two, two-three. The pattern is written in stone, and stone does not bend easily.

Bohemians arrive with the momentum of a 2–1 win over Waterford on 16 October at home, and a broader record that speaks of a team in command. Six wins in their last ten games, two points per game, and at their own ground over 20 matches they have won nine, scored 1.65 per game, and conceded just 1.15. That is a side that opens the door and then closes it, a balance that is hard to find in this division.

Shelbourne, too, carry fire. Two wins in a row, seven goals scored and only two conceded in those matches. Their last five games have seen them score in every single one — five out of five — and over 20 away games they have failed to score in just three. The 5–1 over Sligo Rovers on 9 October and the 2–1 away at St Patrick's Athletic on 16 October show a side that is not afraid to attack.

The counter-argument, however, is real. Shelbourne's away record over 20 games carries nine draws, and the head-to-head at this venue has been a tight affair — two of the three meetings ended level. Bohemians' own last five includes a 0–2 home defeat to Waterford in the FAI Cup and a 0–0 friendly, and their current run is just one win. The market prices the home win at 1.67, implying a 59.88% chance, and that is a fair reflection of Bohemians' edge. But the draw at 4.04 and the away win at 5.05 are not out of the question.

What the numbers do not lie about, though, is the scoring. At this ground, both teams have found the net in all three recent meetings. Shelbourne's away record is 15 out of 20 for both teams to score, and their last five games have been five out of five. Bohemians at home have seen both sides score in 13 of 20. The combined picture points to a game where the net will shake on both ends. I rate the chance of both teams scoring at around 63%, which sits above the market's 58.82% view. The evidence is there, and it is not subtle.

Key Points:

• All three recent meetings at Bohemians' ground have seen both teams score (2–2, 2–2, 2–3)

• Shelbourne have scored in all five of their last five games and failed to score in only 3 of 20 away games

• Bohemians have seen both teams score in 13 of 20 home games

• Shelbourne's last two wins came with 7 goals scored and only 2 conceded

• The head-to-head at this venue has produced goals from both sides in every meeting

I place my wager on both teams to score.