Boise vs Alta Prediction

Boise arrive at this fixture in strong form, and their home record tells a story that is hard to ignore. In 18 home games, they have won 12, drawn 3 and lost 3, scoring 30 goals and conceding 17. That is a 2.17 points-per-game rate and an average of 1.67 goals per game at home. Their last two matches have been wins — a 2–1 away at Portland Hearts of Pine on 10 October and a 1–0 home victory over Greenville Triumph on 3 October — and across their last 10 games on all grounds they have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss.

The opposition, Alta, are struggling on the road. Their away record over 20 games spans 12 months, with older games diluting current form, and shows 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses, with 19 goals scored and 38 conceded. Their last five matches have been 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. The 0–3 defeat at Forward Madison on 19 September and the 0–1 loss at Portland Hearts of Pine on 13 September underline how difficult Alta find it to score away from home.

The head-to-head is thin. The only meeting between these two sides within the last 12 months was a 2–2 draw at Alta's ground on 12 April. There have been no meetings at Boise's ground in the recent period. With just one data point, the head-to-head offers no real guidance, and the current form and venue records must carry the weight of this preview.

The counter-argument is that Boise are not perfect at home. They have lost 3 of their 18 home games, and the 1–1 draw at Charlotte Independence on 17 September shows they can be held to a low-scoring result. Alta's 2–2 draw at home against Greenville Triumph on 11 October suggests they are not entirely without a goal-scoring threat. However, Boise's last two results have been wins.

Key Points:

• Boise have won 12 of their 18 home games, averaging 1.67 goals per game at home

• Alta have lost 13 of their 20 away games, scoring just 0.95 per game on the road

• Boise have won their last two matches; Alta have lost four of their last five

• The only recent head-to-head meeting was a 2–2 draw at Alta's ground

• Boise's home record and Alta's away record point in the same direction

Verdict: Boise home win.