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Bologna host Inter at their ground on 17 October, and the numbers tell a story that's hard to ignore. Inter's record over their last 20 away games is 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses, with 1.85 points per game and 1.85 goals scored per game. Bologna's record over their last 20 home games is 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses, with 1.15 points per game and 1.05 goals scored per game. The gap is stark.
Inter's recent form is equally compelling. In their last 10 games, they've won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2, scoring 2.5 goals per game. Bologna, by contrast, have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 in their last 10, scoring just 1.1 per game. Inter's xG output in their recent matches with data available is 2.71 per game, while Bologna's xG against sits at 1.09 per game. The attacking disparity is significant.
The head-to-head at Bologna's ground adds another layer. In the three recent meetings within the last 12 months, Bologna have not won. The 23 May 2026 meeting ended 3–3, and the 19 December 2025 Super Cup clash was a 1–1 draw. Bologna's record against Inter at this venue in those two games is 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
The counter-argument, though, is real. Bologna's home record is draw-heavy — 8 of their 20 home games ended level. Both recent meetings at this venue have been draws. Bologna came into this fixture fresh from a 2–1 win at Lecce on 11 October, and Inter's most recent match was a 3–4 defeat to Club Brugge in the Champions League on 13 October. The draw tendency at this ground, combined with Inter's recent stumble, keeps the outcome open.
But here's the thing: I can't find value in the available prices. The evidence — Inter's away record, their scoring output, the head-to-head at this venue — all points to Inter being the stronger side. But Bologna's draw tendency at home and the two recent 3–3 and 1–1 results at this ground keep my honest estimate of Inter's win probability below the level where the price offers genuine value. The draw is tempting given the venue history, but Inter's 7 wins in 10 recent games makes it hard to rate that outcome as undervalued.
Key Points:
- Inter's record over 20 away games: 10W 7D 3L, 1.85 points per game
- Bologna's record over 20 home games: 5W 8D 7L, 1.15 points per game
- Both recent head-to-head meetings at Bologna ended in draws (3–3, 1–1)
- Inter scored 2.5 goals per game in their last 10; Bologna scored 1.1
- Inter's xG for is 2.71 per game; Bologna's xG against is 1.09 per game
No Bet. The available prices don't offer the edge I need to act.