Bologna vs Monza Prediction

Value Vinny here. Let's get into the numbers.

Bologna host Monza on 31 October in Serie A, and the numbers tell a clear story about goals. Monza have not failed to score in any of their last 10 games — not one. In their last five, they've found the net in every match, scoring 2, 4, 1, 2 and 2 goals respectively. Their away record over 20 games shows them scoring in 17 of 20, and their xG output of 1.67 per game across 8 recent matches underlines that this isn't a one-off. Bologna, for their part, have scored in 4 of their last 5 games and 15 of their last 20 at home. Their xG for sits at 1.29 per game over 8 recent matches. The venue records back it up: 11 of Bologna's last 20 home games saw both teams score, and 12 of Monza's last 20 away games did the same. In the last 10 games, 8 of Monza's and 5 of Bologna's went BTTS yes.

The counter-argument is real. Bologna have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 games and 5 of their last 20 at home. Their home record is 5W 8D 7L — a lot of draws, which can mask a side that's struggling to break down opposition. And the head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months, so I can't lean on past results. The most recent meeting at Bologna's ground was a 3–1 Bologna win in January 2025, but that's 21 months ago and tells me little about this fixture.

Monza's defence is the other concern. They've conceded 2.0 per game over their last 10, and their away record shows 1.45 conceded per game. That's a leaky back line, which actually feeds the BTTS yes case — if Monza are letting goals in, Bologna's chances of finding the net go up.

Key Points:

• Monza have scored in all 10 of their last games and 17 of their last 20 away

• Bologna have scored in 4 of their last 5 and 15 of their last 20 at home

• Both venue records show BTTS yes in the majority of games (11/20 home, 12/20 away)

• Monza's defence has conceded 2.0 per game over the last 10, opening up Bologna's scoring chances

• The head-to-head is entirely historical (no meetings in the last 12 months), so current form and venue records carry the weight

The market has both teams to score at 1.80, implying a 55.56% chance. My read, based on Monza scoring in all 10 of their last games and Bologna's solid home scoring record, puts the true probability closer to 60%. That's value. My pick: both teams to score.