Bolton vs Blackpool Prediction

Right then, fancy a flutter on the Lancashire derby? Bolton against Blackpool this Saturday afternoon, and on paper this looks like a proper mismatch. The Trotters are sitting pretty in third place chasing automatic promotion, while the Seasiders are down in 17th just trying to stay afloat.

Let's have a butcher's at the recent form, shall we? Bolton have been solid as a rock lately – only two defeats in their last ten. Sure, they've drawn their last two against Reading and Lincoln, but don't let that fool you. Reading are no mugs (1.80 points per game recently) and Lincoln are second in the table banging in goals for fun. Before that, Bolton were on a lovely little run beating Barnsley 3-2, Wimbledon 1-0, and Burton 2-1. At home they're absolutely flying with a 75% win rate in their last four, netting 1.75 goals a game and dominating possession with nearly 58%.

Now, Blackpool. Oh dear. They've lost seven of their last ten matches and got absolutely spanked 4-0 at home by Plymouth recently. Their away form is shocking – zero wins in their last five on the road, losing four of them, and shipping 2.4 goals per game when they travel. They did manage a 1-0 win against Mansfield last time out, but let's be honest, they've conceded twenty goals in their last ten games. That's two a game, mate. Against a Bolton side creating over 13 shots per match, that defence is going to be busier than a one-armed wallpaper hanger.

The head-to-head makes lovely reading for the home fans too. Bolton have won three and drawn one of the last four meetings at their place against Blackpool. The Trotters know how to get the job done in this fixture.

Looking at the odds, the bookies have Bolton at 1.53. Is it short? Yeah, a bit. But when you've got a team with 75% home win form against a side with 0% away win form and an 80% loss rate on their travels, the maths stacks up. I'm putting the true probability closer to 70%, which gives us a nice bit of value on the home win.

Key Points:

• Bolton are 3rd in League One with 57 points, pushing hard for automatic promotion

• The Trotters have won 75% of their last 4 home games, scoring 1.75 goals per game

• Blackpool are struggling in 17th with just 36 points from 32 games played

• The Seasiders have lost 80% of their last 5 away games, conceding 2.4 goals per game on the road

• Bolton have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 home meetings with Blackpool

• Blackpool have conceded 20 goals in their last 10 matches (2.0 per game average)

Summary:

Sometimes the best bet is the obvious one, and this is one of those times. Bolton are too strong at home for a Blackpool side that can't buy a win away from Bloomfield Road. The 1.53 on a home win is short but fair value given the form gap. Back Bolton to take the three points and keep their promotion charge rolling.