Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction

Borussia Dortmund are flying at the moment, and Werder Bremen are about to find out just how hard that is to deal with.

The Black and Yellow have won their last five on the bounce, scoring 15 and conceding just 4. That's a 3-0 hammering of Paderborn at home three weeks ago, a 3-2 win over Villarreal in the Champions League, and a 1-0 away scalp of Stuttgart just two weeks before kickoff. Five wins, no draws, no losses — that's a side that's found its rhythm and isn't letting go.

At home, Dortmund's numbers over the last 20 games tell the story: 14 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, with 2.3 goals a game and 1.1 conceded. Nine clean sheets in that stretch, and they've failed to score in just 2 of those 20 home games. This is a side that comes to work on their own patch.

Now, the head-to-head in the last 12 months is a bit one-sided. Dortmund won 3-0 here in January and 2-0 at Bremen's ground in May. Two meetings, two wins, five goals to nil. The older meetings stretch back 14 years, but the recent ones are the ones that matter, and they paint a clear picture.

Bremen, to be fair, aren't sitting pretty. Their last five is 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, but that loss was a 1-4 thrashing at Freiburg five weeks ago. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses — 1.05 points per game, 1.4 scored, 1.5 conceded. That's a side that struggles on the road. They did beat Augsburg 3-2 at home two weeks ago, so they've got some fire, but the numbers say the road is where the problems live.

The counter-argument? Bremen have scored in all their last five, and they've won their last game. They're not a team that's gone quiet. But "scored in all five" doesn't mean much when your away record is 5-6-9 and your last away result was a 1-4 defeat. Dortmund, by contrast, have failed to score in 0 of their last 10 across all venues, and their home scoring of 2.3 per game compares to Bremen's away output of 1.4.

Key Points:

• Borussia Dortmund have won their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4

• Dortmund's home record: 14W 2D 4L over 20 games, 2.3 goals per game

• Head-to-head in the last 12 months: Dortmund won both meetings (3-0, 2-0)

• Werder Bremen's away record: 5W 6D 9L over 20 games, 1.05 points per game

• Bremen's last away result was a 1-4 loss at Freiburg

The football here is clear — Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side on every measure that matters, and Werder Bremen's away numbers don't give them much to hide behind. But with no available prices I can use for a recommendation, this one's a no bet.