Boston United vs Aldershot Town Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Boston United hosting Aldershot Town – it’s a classic bottom-half scrap, the sort of game that might not be pretty but could be absolutely crucial come May. Boston are sitting 16th, Aldershot are rock bottom. Three points for either side would be a massive boost, but the way both teams have been defending lately, you’ve got to fancy a few goals.

First up, the Pilgrims. Their form’s been a bit all over the shop. They’ve only won two of their last ten, but they did bag a lovely 3-0 win away at Morecambe just a couple of weeks back. The problem? They’ve been absolutely dreadful at home. No wins in their last four at their own gaff, shipping goals for fun – conceding two and a half per game on average. They lost 1-2 to Carlisle, 1-3 to Rochdale, and even got turned over 0-4 by Morecambe earlier in the season. They just can’t keep the back door shut.

Then you’ve got the Shots. Blimey, their away form makes for grim reading. No wins in their last six on the road, losing five of ‘em. They’re conceding two goals a game away from home and only scoring about two-thirds of a goal. They got absolutely tonked 5-1 at York last month. The one bright spot was a 2-1 home win over Altrincham last time out in the league, but that’s at home. On their travels, they’re there for the taking.

Now, when these two have met before, it’s been decent for Boston. They’re unbeaten in the two meetings we’ve got data for – a 2-1 win last April and a 1-1 draw the season before. So they’ll have a bit of a psychological edge.

Let’s talk numbers, ‘cause they tell a story. Boston have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten. Aldershot? None. Zip. Nada. Both teams have scored in 70% of Boston’s games and a whopping 80% of Aldershot’s. That’s a recipe for goals, my friends.

Looking at the recent results, the trend is your friend. Boston’s last three games have seen 1, 3, and 2 goals for them (that’s an average of 1.67). Aldershot’s last three have seen 1, 5, and 2 goals against them. Both sides are showing signs of life going forward, but their defences are still on their holidays.

So, what’s the bet? The bookies have Over 2.5 Goals at 1.62. That’s implying about a 62% chance. I reckon that’s a bit short. Given the defensive records – Boston letting in 2.5 at home, Aldershot letting in 2.0 away – and the fact both teams usually score, I’d put the real chance closer to 65%. That’s a bit of value for me. Both Teams to Score at 1.57 is also tempting, but I think the total goals market is the smarter play here. This has all the makings of a 2-1, 1-2, or even a 2-2 kind of game.

Key Points:

Boston are winless in their last 4 home games (0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses).

Aldershot are winless in their last 6 away games (0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses).

Both teams have scored in 70% of Boston’s last 10 and 80% of Aldershot’s last 10.

Boston have kept just 1 clean sheet in 10; Aldershot have kept 0.

• Head-to-head: Boston are unbeaten in two meetings (1 win, 1 draw).

In summary, this is a huge game down at the bottom. Neither side can defend with any confidence, but both can find the net. I’m expecting an open, nervy affair with goals at both ends. The smart money, for me, is on there being at least three goals in it.