Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be straight with you – this one's got me scratching my head a bit. The market's pricing Botafogo SP as the home favourite at 2.27, but when I actually sit down and look at the football, I'm not so sure about that.
Ceara are flying. Three wins and two draws in their last five, no losses, and they've won their last two on the bounce – 1–0 against Criciuma and 1–0 at Avai. Over their last ten games they've picked up 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 1.2 per game and conceding just 1.1. That's a team that's clicking. And when you look at the head-to-head, Ceara have won three of the four older meetings against Botafogo SP, though those dates stretch back three years. The only recent meeting went Botafogo SP's way, sure – a 1–0 win at Ceara's ground back in June – so I'm not treating the older results as current form.
Now here's where it gets interesting. Ceara's away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses – that's not pretty. And Botafogo SP at home over 20 games have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses. So on a pure venue basis, the home side actually have the edge. Botafogo SP did win 2–0 against Ponte Preta two weeks ago, and they've got that 2–1 away win at Operario-PR six days ago to keep them in the mix. But their home form has been patchy – a 0–1 loss to Vila Nova and a 1–3 defeat to Goias bookend that Ponte Preta win. That's a team that's leaking.
The counter-argument is real: Ceara's away numbers are poor, and Botafogo SP do have a home record that's better than Ceara's away record on the stats. But form is form, and Ceara haven't lost in five. They've scored in every one of those five. Botafogo SP have lost two of their last three at home. I've been in enough away games in SA to know that a team on a roll can turn a neutral-looking fixture into a win, especially when the home side's been conceding like they're paying for it. And I'll tell you, when your defence's been giving up 1.6 per game over your last ten, you don't want the visitors coming in with a 1.1 conceded per game.
Key Points:
- Ceara are unbeaten in five (3W 2D) and have won their last two, scoring 2 and conceding 0
- Botafogo SP lost two of their last three home games (0–1 to Vila Nova, 1–3 to Goias)
- Ceara won 3 of 4 older head-to-head meetings; the only recent meeting was at Ceara's ground
- Ceara's away record (4W 6D 10L in 20) is a genuine concern, but their recent away form includes a 1–0 win at Avai
- The market prices Botafogo SP at 44.05% but the form and head-to-head history point the other way
My verdict: I'm going with the away win for Ceara. The form, the head-to-head history, and the fact that Botafogo SP's been leaking at home all point to the visitors taking this one.